Litecoin/Tether Market Overview for 2025-10-03

• LTC/USDT opened at $117.98, surged to $120.19, declined to $116.04, and closed at $117.41 on 2025-10-03.
• Price saw a 15-minute candlestick reversal pattern near $117.0–117.5, suggesting bearish exhaustion.
• Volume spiked at $119.0–120.0 and declined into the close, aligning with the price drop.
• RSI showed overbought conditions above 70 and oversold conditions below 30, confirming volatile swings.
• Bollinger Bands indicated low volatility during consolidation phases and high volatility during breakout attempts.

Litecoin/Tether (LTCUSDT) opened at $117.98 on October 2, 2025 (12:00 ET-1), reached a high of $120.19, a low of $116.04, and closed at $117.41 by 12:00 ET on October 3. Over the 24-hour period, total volume was 201,548.55 LTC and notional turnover of $24.11 million. The price action revealed a strong short-term bearish trend followed by a moderate bullish rebound near the close.

Structure & Formations

The price structure shows a key resistance cluster forming around the $119.70–120.19 range, where several candles failed to push higher despite rising momentum. Support levels appear consolidated around $117.00 and $116.04, marked by a bearish pinocchio candle and a bearish engulfing pattern. A doji near $117.40 suggests indecision and potential reversal after the sharp decline from $120.19. The formation hints that short-term traders may be preparing for a bounce or a continuation of bearish sentiment depending on volume behavior.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages showed a bearish crossover just before the price decline, confirming the short-term bearish shift. The 50-period line crossed below the 100 and 200-period lines on the daily chart, suggesting a continuation of the bearish trend. The moving average convergence reinforces the idea that the downtrend is still intact unless a strong bullish breakout occurs above $119.70.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a bearish crossover and negative histogram during the price drop from $120.19 to $116.04. RSI hit oversold territory at 28, suggesting a potential bounce could be imminent. However, the failure to break above 70 multiple times during the rally indicates limited bullish conviction. Momentum appears to be shifting back toward the mean, with mixed signals for a sustained reversal. Traders may watch for an RSI divergence as a potential warning sign.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the breakout from $117.0 to $120.19 and again during the subsequent decline. Price spent significant time near the lower band before closing near the middle band, indicating some consolidation. A contraction in Bollinger Band width during the early hours hinted at a potential breakout, which materialized on the bearish side. If volatility contracts again, it could signal another range-bound phase.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the price swing from $117.0 to $120.19, confirming the bearish move. Turnover also aligned with the price drop, reaching $4.2 million in the session. A divergence between price and volume during the rebound near $117.40 suggests weak bullish conviction. If volume fails to support a bullish breakout, the bearish trend may continue.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels applied to the $117.0 to $120.19 swing identified 38.2% at $118.76 and 61.8% at $117.38, which coincided with key support levels observed in candlestick formations. These levels appear to have acted as psychological and technical barriers. A move above $119.70 could trigger a test of the 78.6% retrace at $119.33, offering further clarity on the trend’s direction.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy involves entering a short position when the 20-period moving average crosses below the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by an RSI above 70 and a bearish engulfing pattern. The exit is triggered when the price rebounds to the 38.2% Fibonacci level or when volume drops below a 50-period average. This setup appears to align with the observed price action and could have captured the $120.19–$117.04 decline. Further testing over multiple cycles would be needed to validate the robustness of the strategy.