Litecoin/Tether (LTCUSDT) Market Overview

Summary
• Price opened at $87.96, surged to $89.53 before consolidating to a 24-hour close of $86.10.
• Volatility increased midday, with a peak high of $89.53 and a late dip to $85.30.
• Volume spiked during the $85.30 low, signaling heightened interest but bearish confirmation.

Price Action and Structure

Litecoin/Tether (LTCUSDT) began the 24-hour period at $87.96 on 2025-11-05 at 17:00 ET and traded in a volatile range before closing at $86.10 on 2025-11-06 at 12:00 ET. The highest level reached was $89.53, while the lowest was $85.30. Over the 24-hour period, total volume amounted to approximately 282,454.93 LTC and total notional turnover was $24,304,159.93 (based on close prices and volumes).

The price structure shows a distinct bearish trend forming in the latter half of the day, with a sharp bearish engulfing pattern forming around 2025-11-06 at 16:45 ET, confirming a reversal from short-term bullish momentum. A key support level appears to be forming around $85.50–$86.00, with a potential resistance at $88.50–$89.00.

Moving Averages and Momentum

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart show a bearish crossover forming as the price broke below both lines during the 2025-11-06 16:45–17:00 ET window. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is above the 100- and 200-period MAs, suggesting a longer-term bearish bias. The 50/200 MA crossover appears to be in the early stages of a death cross, which may confirm a stronger bearish trend over the coming days.

The MACD histogram has turned negative throughout the latter half of the period, indicating fading bullish momentum and strengthening bearish pressure. RSI has moved below the 30 level, suggesting the pair is in oversold territory, but given the recent bearish price action, a bounce may be short-lived.

Variability and Volume Confirmation

Bollinger Bands have widened significantly as the price dropped to the $85.30 level, signaling a period of heightened volatility. The price closed near the lower band at $86.10, suggesting that the oversold condition is being confirmed by both momentum and price action.

Volume and turnover have spiked at the $85.30 low, with the 16:45–17:00 ET candle contributing the largest single-volume bar at 11,691.77 LTC. This suggests significant selling pressure at the lower end of the range and may indicate a short-term bottoming process. However, a divergence between the high volume and the bearish close could suggest a potential false bottom.

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the major swing from $85.30 to $89.53 show the $87.00–$87.30 level as the 61.8% retracement, which could act as a potential target for a short-term rebound. The 38.2% retracement at $86.50 also appears to be a possible pivot point if the price begins to consolidate after the sharp decline.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest hypothesis was evaluated using the combination of a MACD top divergence and a bearish engulfing pattern on the daily chart. Over the period from 1-Jan-2022 to 6-Nov-2025, no such signal was triggered for LTCUSDT, and therefore no short positions were opened. As a result, performance metrics such as return, drawdown, and hit-rate were all zero. This suggests that the market has not exhibited the specific conditions required by the strategy within the tested time frame. However, the bearish engulfing pattern observed in the last 24 hours aligns with the strategy’s criteria, and if confirmed by additional technical indicators, could serve as a signal for a short entry in the near term.