Litecoin surges 30% in 72 hours, retreats to $101.82

Litecoin (LTC) experienced a significant price rally, surging from $87 to $116, before encountering resistance and retracing. This vertical rally was triggered by a confirmed inverse head-and-shoulders breakout, but the failure to sustain above $115 led to intraday selling. Despite this, the bullish structure remains intact as long as the price stays above $95.

On the daily chart, LTC broke through the neckline resistance of a cup and handle pattern on July 18, leading to a vertical breakout. The price peaked at $116.27 before reversing and is now trading near $101.82. This current zone coincides with historical resistance from February and a cluster of Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) between $90.8 and $92.5. The Keltner Channel bands are widening, with the upper band at $103 and the price retracing toward the midline, indicating elevated volatility after the parabolic surge. The Chaikin Money Flow remains positive at 0.14, signaling continued net accumulation despite the short-term dip.

The pattern break suggests that broader bullish intent remains, but sellers have stepped in strongly near $115, placing Litecoin back into the $102–$103 battle zone. The question of why Litecoin's price is going down today is linked to both technical exhaustion and liquidity zone rejections. After breaking out above $105, LTC price action surged nearly 30% in under 72 hours. The steep move triggered a $116 rejection as the price tapped the upper boundary of a long-term descending trendline. On-chain metrics show net inflows into LTC spot markets surged to $10.27 million on July 20, but the price failed to hold the momentum above $115. The combination of overhead resistance and exhausted upside momentum is causing a mean-reversion pullback.

On the 4-hour chart, multiple trendline supports have formed near $97 and $95.9. The parabolic rise has now transitioned into a stair-step retracement structure, with the lower high at $105.3 forming a new rejection pivot. Short-term indicators suggest a cooling phase rather than a reversal. On the 30-minute chart, the Parabolic SAR has flipped bearish, and the price has fallen below the session Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) at $105.93. However, support still holds near the anchored trendline and prior breakout at $100. VWAP and SAR now point to a consolidation phase. The price is testing the EMA20 zone near $103.91. If this fails to reclaim, expect a drop toward $97. Volume remains elevated, and the On-Balance Volume shows net positive flows despite the dip.

From a momentum perspective, the daily setup still supports a bullish bias. The inverse head-and-shoulders neckline break near $95 remains a key pivot for bulls to defend. As long as Litecoin price holds above $97, the structure remains bullish with a possible consolidation before continuation. A retest of $105 is possible if $102.5 is reclaimed with strength. However, a failure to hold above $100 would invite deeper profit-taking toward $95 and then $92. If bulls reclaim control above $104.50 with volume, upside targets remain $110 and $115. The $116.27 rejection will be critical resistance moving forward, aligning with macro trendline pressure from late 2024.