Litecoin Market Overview: 2025-09-01

• Price swung from 107.77 to 111.00, closing near 110.00
• Volatility spiked as price fell below key support levels
• RSI and MACD signaled bearish momentum with low volume
• Bollinger Bands showed a contraction followed by a breakout
• Volume surged during the late-night sell-off but faded at the close

Litecoin (LTCUSD) opened at 109.00 on 2025-09-01 at 12:00 ET and closed at 110.00 at 12:00 ET the following day. The 24-hour range was 107.77 to 111.00. Total volume reached 32.303 LTC, with a notional turnover of $3,561.88. The market exhibited strong volatility and bearish bias following a late-night breakdown.

Structure & Formations

The LTCUSD chart displayed a bearish breakdown from the 110.61 resistance level, with a sharp decline into the 107.77 support. A significant bearish engulfing pattern formed around 109.02 at 00:30 ET, confirming the downward shift in sentiment. A doji appeared at 109.04 at 01:15 ET, suggesting indecision before the downward leg. The price then formed a strong bearish flag pattern between 109.0 and 107.84. The 107.77 level served as a key support, but it failed to hold as volume surged in the early hours of September 1.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period moving averages both trended downward during the key sell-off, confirming the bearish bias. By the morning of September 1, the 20-period MA sat below the 50-period MA, signaling a weak short-term trend. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA appears to have crossed below the 200-period MA, hinting at a bearish crossover forming. This reinforces the idea that LTCUSD may continue to face downward pressure in the near term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line during the sharp decline between 109.0 and 107.77, confirming a bearish momentum shift. The histogram showed a significant negative divergence during the sell-off. RSI dropped below 30, indicating oversold conditions, but failed to spark a rebound—suggesting a continuation of bearish pressure. The RSI and MACD signals were aligned during the key breakdown, validating the strength of the bearish move.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a period of tight contraction as LTCUSD moved between 109.0 and 107.77, followed by a sharp break below the lower band at 107.77. This breakout confirmed a potential continuation of the downward trend. The price remained outside the bands for several hours before consolidating, suggesting heightened volatility and a bearish bias in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the late-night sell-off, particularly at 109.02 and 107.84, confirming the breakdown. However, volume dropped sharply in the morning, coinciding with a consolidation phase and lack of follow-through bearish momentum. Notional turnover reached a high of $3,561.88, with the largest single candle contributing $9.445 million in turnover during the breakdown. This divergence between volume and price action at the close suggests potential for a temporary consolidation or short-term reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 110.61 to 107.77 swing, the 38.2% level at 109.58 was rejected, as was the 61.8% level at 108.56. This suggests that LTCUSD could test the next key support at 107.77 again or possibly retrace to 108.0. On the daily chart, Fibonacci levels drawn from the 111.0 to 107.77 move suggest potential for a 78.6% retracement near 108.5, which may offer temporary support or resistance depending on the next 24-hour action.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy based on the bearish engulfing pattern observed at 109.02 would involve entering a short position at the close of that candle and setting a stop above the 109.04 high. A 3:1 risk-to-reward ratio would target a take-profit at 107.77, the level at which the candlestick formed a strong bearish continuation. This strategy could be optimized by incorporating the 20- and 50-period moving averages to filter only those patterns where the short-term trend is already bearish. Given the low RSI at the close and the confirmation from Bollinger Bands, this pattern would align with the broader market setup, making it a viable candidate for a short-term bearish trade.