"Litecoin Leads Crypto ETF Race, XRP Lags Despite Community Support"

Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have analyzed the filings for spot crypto ETFs and assessed the approval odds for each cryptocurrency. According to their findings, Litecoin has the strongest chance of approval, with a 90% probability, due to its favorable regulatory standing. The analysts noted that Litecoin's commodity status, which was cleared by the CFTC in its KuCoin lawsuit, distinguishes it from other assets that could potentially be considered unregistered securities.

In contrast, XRP has the lowest chance of approval, with a 65% probability, trailing behind Litecoin, Dogecoin (75%), and Solana (70%). Balchunas noted that their predictions were based on ETF filings structured similarly to BlackRock’s Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which operates under the '33 Act framework. However, if the SEC approves the initial applications, alternative ETF formats, such as those based on futures contracts or Cayman Islands subsidiaries regulated under the Investment Company Act of 1940, could also have a path to approval.

Some members of the XRP community, known as XRPArmy, have defended their favorite coin against the low approval odds. They argue that the SEC has not contested the XRP status as a commodity in its appeal of the decision in favor of Ripple. However, Seyffart clarified that until all litigation between the SEC and Ripple is settled, the prospect of an XRP ETF remains uncertain. Although the 19b-4 filings for DOGE and XRP are expected to be acknowledged this week, any meaningful development would likely not occur until the end of 2025, when the SEC and Commissioner Hester Peirce's Crypto task force are expected to start clearing the backlog of security vs. commodity lawsuits left by previous leadership.

On Monday, NASDAQ formally filed 19b-4 forms for Coinshares’ XRP and Litecoin ETFs, following a similar filing from Cboe last week for spot XRP exchange-traded funds managed by WisdomTree, Bitwise, 21Shares, and Canary. For a crypto ETF to launch in the US, two key approvals are typically required: S-1 and 19b-4. The S-1 is a registration statement filed by the ETF issuer to register the fund