Litecoin ETF Leads Crypto Race in 2025: 90% Chance

As the crypto market continues to evolve, the question of which cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will lead the way in the coming years is a topic of keen interest. According to Bloomberg Intelligence analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, a Litecoin ETF is the frontrunner to launch in 2025, with a 90% probability.

Beyond Litecoin, Seyffart and Balchunas have assigned a 75% probability to a Dogecoin ETF approval in 2025. The odds then decrease to 70% and 65% for Solana and XRP ETFs, respectively. While some industry observers agree with these assessments, others have expressed differing opinions.

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has not previously classified Litecoin (LTC) and Dogecoin (DOGE) as securities, which is seen as a positive sign for their potential inclusion in ETFs. The SEC has also acknowledged Litecoin ETF filings, indicating a willingness to consider such products. Seyffart expects further acknowledgments from the SEC in the coming week.

However, the regulatory landscape for other cryptocurrencies is less clear. Solana (SOL) has been deemed a security in several SEC lawsuits, and the regulator has filed an appeal in its case against Ripple. Ripple's chief legal officer, Stuart Alderoty, has expressed optimism that the case will be resolved under the next administration. Nevertheless, Bitwise general counsel Katherine Dowling has warned of the SEC's "purgatorial state" until a new chair is confirmed, and ongoing litigation may take time to resolve.

Despite the high odds assigned to Litecoin and Dogecoin ETFs, the probabilities are not 100% due to the inherent uncertainties in the regulatory process. ETF.com's Sumit Roy has noted that the SEC remains cautious about market manipulation and custody risks, which apply to all crypto ETFs. The SEC's 240-day clock to rule on the Litecoin proposals expires in early October, so investors should mark their calendars for this important deadline.