Litecoin Drops Below $90 Amid Bullish Indicators

Litecoin (LTC) has recently fallen below the $90 mark, raising questions about whether this is a buying opportunity or a warning sign. Several fundamental and onchain indicators suggest that the market sentiment for LTC could be shifting in favor of the bulls.

One key indicator is the 90-day Spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD), which measures the balance between market buy and sell pressure. After remaining negative or neutral since December 2024, the Spot CVD turned positive on June 28. This shift indicates a return to a “taker buy dominant” phase, suggesting that market participants are buying LTC at current prices.

The potential approval of an LTC exchange-traded fund (ETF) could further boost market sentiment. According to analysts, there is a 95% chance that an LTC ETF, along with SOL and XRP ETFs, could receive SEC approval by October 2, 2025. This approval would be a historic milestone for the altcoin, potentially unlocking institutional investor interest and broader retail exposure.

However, seasonality may temper short-term expectations. Data shows that August and September are historically the weakest months for LTC, with average negative returns of 6.99% and 5.06% since 2012. This is typically followed by a significant turnaround in the fourth quarter, with November being the best-performing month historically for LTC, with average returns of 94.79%.

If the ETF is approved, the decision coincides with the seasonal pivot in LTC’s performance, setting the stage for a potential rally. Combined with the ongoing shift in onchain buyer behavior, the current price weakness may be less of a warning sign and more of a strategic accumulation zone.

LTC’s current price structure mirrors its 2024 trajectory. After a strong first-quarter rally earlier this year, LTC entered a correction phase and remained suppressed below a descending trendline throughout the second quarter. The price has retested a high-conviction daily demand zone, which previously acted as a base for a breakout in the fourth quarter of 2024.

A steady accumulation within this demand zone could trigger another rally. In late third quarter of last year, LTC broke above the descending trendline and reclaimed the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, a key confirmation of bullish strength. This led to a sustained rally to new yearly highs in the fourth quarter.

A breakout above the trendline and bullish reclaim of these moving averages would provide strong technical validation for upside continuation heading into the fourth quarter of 2025. This analysis suggests that while LTC’s current price action may appear weak, several indicators point to a potential bullish turnaround in the near future.