Litecoin and Cardano Surge as ETF Approval Hopes Rise, Analysts Predict 90% Chance for Litecoin ETF

Litecoin (LTC) and Cardano (ADA) have seen significant gains in recent days, with investors optimistic about the potential approval of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) focused on these cryptocurrencies. Bloomberg ETF analysts have predicted a 90% chance of approval for a Litecoin ETF, while Cardano's prospects remain uncertain.

On February 10, 2025, NYSE Arca filed a 19b-4 form with the SEC to list the Grayscale Cardano Trust, marking a significant step toward the first US spot Cardano (ADA) ETF. The proposed rule change for the Cardano ETF falls under NYSE Arca Rule 8.201-E, which allows the listing of "Commodity-Based Trust Shares." The Delaware Trust Company serves as the trustee of the Cardano ETF, while the Coinbase Custody Trust Company holds the Trust’s ADA in cold storage.



Grayscale Investments has officially filed an application with the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) for a spot Cardano (ADA) exchange-traded fund (ETF). The filing, submitted under NYSE Arca Rule 8.201-E, reflects the growing institutional interest in altcoin ETFs, following the SEC’s approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs last year. The trust’s net asset value will be calculated daily using an index price from regulated exchanges like Coinbase and Kraken, with Coinbase Custody safeguarding assets and BNY Mellon serving as administrator.

Following the news, the price of Cardano’s native token, ADA, had surged by over 14% to $0.7948 at press time. However, regulatory hurdles remain, as the SEC previously categorized Cardano as security in lawsuits, and the absence of CME ADA futures could delay approval.

Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas believe that a Litecoin ETF has a 90% chance of being approved in 2025. They also estimate a 75% chance for a Dogecoin ETF, 70% for a Solana ETF, and 65% for an XRP ETF. These odds represent a major shift from earlier predictions, as most of these proposals had less than 5% chance of approval before recent regulatory developments.

The strong performance of existing cryptocurrency ETFs has sparked interest in expanding the market. Since their launches, Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $40.7 billion in net inflows, while Ethereum ETFs have drawn $3.18 billion, according to data from Farside Investors.



Litecoin’s high approval odds stem from several factors. The cryptocurrency, created in 2011 as a faster alternative to Bitcoin, shares similar technical characteristics with Bitcoin, including its proof-of-work consensus mechanism. The SEC has already acknowledged Litecoin’s regulatory filings, including both S-1 and 19b-4 forms. Seyffart believes that while a Litecoin ETF might not generate the same level of investor interest as Bitcoin or Ethereum funds, it could still be profitable for fund companies. He suggests that even $50 million in assets under management could make these products worthwhile for issuers.

The regulatory landscape for other cryptocurrencies presents additional challenges. XRP faces ongoing legal uncertainty, with analysts suggesting that ETF approval might have to wait until the whole Ripple/XRP/SEC case is settled, finished, or has some sort of outcome. While Ripple won a partial victory in August 2023 regarding XRP’s status in secondary market sales, the SEC has appealed this decision.

Solana’s path to ETF approval also faces hurdles due to questions about its security status. According to Seyffart, these issues need resolution before the SEC can evaluate Solana under a commodities ETF framework.

The timeline for these decisions is becoming clearer. The final deadline for the SEC to rule on Litecoin, Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin ETFs falls between October 2 and October 18, according to Seyffart’s analysis. However, he notes that a Litecoin ETF could potentially launch before these deadlines.

New entrants continue to join the race. Canary Capital and 21Shares have filed ETF proposals for Hedera and Polkadot, though analysts have not yet assigned approval probabilities to these applications. The market may see even more crypto ETF proposals in the coming months, as US-based ETF issuers adopt what Seyffart calls a "spaghetti cannon approach," filing multiple applications to see which ones succeed.

Commissioner Hester Peirce’s Crypto Task Force may review the SEC’s classification of XRP and Solana as securities by the end of 2025, potentially affecting their ETF approval odds. Both XRP and Dogecoin ETF filings are expected to receive SEC acknowledgment soon, according to Seyffart’s latest updates.

The current administration’s approach to cryptocurrency regulation appears more favorable than previous ones, potentially creating opportunities for new crypto investment products. Fund structure variations may emerge beyond traditional ETFs, with alternative structures such as 40 Act futures-based ETFs or Cayman-subsidiary funds also entering the market.

In conclusion, the potential approval of Litecoin and Cardano ETFs has sparked optimism in the cryptocurrency market, with investors anticipating increased exposure and liquidity for these digital assets. As the regulatory landscape continues to evolve, the crypto market remains an exciting and dynamic space for investors and innovators alike.