LISTAUSDT Market Overview – 2025-09-26

• Price declined sharply from 0.2896 to 0.2708 over the last 24 hours, with a close near the 24-hour low.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions early in the session but quickly moved into oversold territory.
• Volume spiked during the early hours of the session, confirming a bearish breakout below key support.
• Bollinger Bands expanded during the selloff, indicating increased volatility and potential for a continuation move.
• A potential bullish rebound emerged near the 0.268 support level, though bearish pressure remains dominant.

Lista DAO/Tether (LISTAUSDT) opened at 0.2889 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.2694 on 2025-09-26 at 12:00 ET, hitting a high of 0.2896 and a low of 0.2608 during the 24-hour period. The total volume traded was 11,074,377.7 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $3,017,246.00. The session saw a strong bearish bias after breaking below key support levels.

Structure & Formations

The price action showed a strong bearish bias after breaking below the 0.275 support level in early evening hours. A large bearish candle formed around 17:15 ET, with a body covering nearly 0.0053 (about 1.8%). This candle, combined with a lower shadow, indicates rejection of higher levels. Later in the session, the price tested the 0.268 support level and showed a small bullish engulfing pattern, suggesting a potential short-term bounce. The formation of a bearish flag pattern between 19:00 and 20:15 ET reinforced the downward trend. A doji formed near the 0.2725 level, indicating indecision and a possible short-term pause in the downward move.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price has closed below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages for most of the session, indicating a strong bearish bias. The 50-period MA has been a key resistance level, which the price failed to close above. On the daily chart, the 200-period MA sits around 0.285, acting as a long-term resistance. The 100-period MA is currently at 0.281, offering some support but failing to hold as the price drifted lower.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line has been negative throughout most of the session, confirming the bearish momentum. A bearish crossover occurred early in the session and remained in negative territory, with the histogram showing increasing bearish strength. The RSI fell sharply after the initial bearish breakout, reaching as low as 23—deep oversold territory—before showing a slight rebound near 32. This indicates potential for a small bounce, though a return to overbought territory is unlikely without a reversal in sentiment.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the selloff, indicating increased volatility. The price closed near the lower band during the late hours, reinforcing the bearish momentum. A contraction in band width was observed around 02:00 ET, which preceded the bearish breakout. This contraction may signal a potential reversal, though the subsequent breakdown below the lower band has invalidated such a possibility in the short term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the early part of the session, particularly around 17:15 and 21:15 ET, coinciding with key bearish moves. Turnover increased by over 200% during these periods, confirming the bearish breakout and reinforcing the move lower. However, volume has since decreased, which may signal weakening bearish momentum unless price breaks below the next level of support near 0.265. Divergence between price and volume is minimal, suggesting the move is still supported by market participants.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent swing from 0.2896 to 0.2608, the 38.2% retracement level sits at approximately 0.2795 and the 61.8% level at 0.2722. The price briefly tested the 61.8% level before declining further, indicating strong bearish sentiment. On the daily chart, a similar pattern shows the 38.2% level near 0.284 and the 61.8% at 0.275. The current price is near the 61.8% level, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce or a test of the 50% level near 0.277 if buying interest returns.

Backtest Hypothesis

Based on the observed price action and technical indicators, a potential backtest hypothesis could focus on a short-biased strategy triggered by a breakdown below the 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a bearish divergence in RSI and a spike in volume. A stop-loss could be placed just above the most recent swing high, with a target near the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the most recent bearish move. This approach would align with the observed bearish momentum and confirmatory divergence in momentum indicators, allowing for a structured and data-driven trade setup.