Liquity/Tether Market Overview for 2025-11-09

Summary
• Price swung between 0.504 and 0.537, with a 0.518 open and 0.536 close.
• Momentum turned bullish with a sharp late-day rally pushing RSI above neutral.
• Volatility expanded in the last 6 hours, with volume surging over 48,000.
• Key support at 0.508 held, while resistance appears at 0.530–0.533.
• Bollinger Band width widened, suggesting increased short-term uncertainty.

Liquity/Tether (LQTYUSDT) opened at 0.518 on 2025-11-08 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.536 on 2025-11-09 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.537 and a low of 0.504. The 24-hour total volume was 1,395,264.5, with a notional turnover of $720,214.43 (volume × price). Price activity reflected a late-day surge, with the most significant move occurring between 14:30 and 17:00 ET, when the pair closed at 0.536 after forming a bullish breakout.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a distinct bearish pressure in the early hours, with a breakdown test to 0.508–0.510. However, this level held as support, triggering a sharp reversal. The late-day rally formed a strong bullish engulfing pattern from 16:15 to 17:00, suggesting a potential short-term reversal. A key level to watch is 0.533, where a bearish reversal could trigger if momentum cools.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA in the last hour, confirming a short-term uptrend. The 50-period MA (daily) crossed above the 100-period MA, reinforcing a medium-term bullish bias. Price remains above both the 200-period daily and 100-period 15-minute MAs, suggesting an overall bullish context.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned positive in the last 90 minutes, with the histogram expanding, indicating strengthening bullish momentum. RSI crossed above 50 and reached 57, suggesting a moderate overbought condition. While not extreme, a pullback toward 50–52 could offer a more balanced entry for bulls.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased sharply in the last 4 hours, with the upper band expanding to 0.537. Price closed near the upper band, signaling a potential exhaustion of the current move. A test of the lower band at 0.508 would confirm a bounce, but sustained price action above 0.530 could indicate a continuation of the bullish move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged in the last hour with a 48,000+ 15-minute candle, confirming the recent bullish breakout. Turnover spiked correspondingly, showing strong conviction behind the rally. A divergence between price and volume would typically signal a reversal, but here both metrics align with the upward move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent swing (0.504–0.537), key retracement levels are at 0.523 (38.2%) and 0.517 (61.8%). The 61.8% level acted as support earlier in the day, but the current price suggests a potential test of the 0.533–0.537 resistance zone.

Backtest Hypothesis

To backtest a bearish strategy, we could examine the bearish engulfing pattern formed between 16:15 and 17:00. A sell signal would have been triggered at the open of the 17:00 candle, with a stop loss above 0.533 and a target near 0.522 (the 38.2% retracement level). The strategy could be evaluated for profitability and risk/reward balance over the next 24 hours if conditions reverse.