Liquity/Tether (LQTYUSDT) Market Overview: 24-Hour Candle Analysis

• Price declined 24 hours, from 0.771 to 0.744, reflecting bearish momentum.
• Volatility spiked after midday ET, with a 15-minute candle drop to 0.727.
• Turnover surged to $1.12M during the selloff, suggesting short-term profit-taking or panic.
• RSI hit oversold territory below 30, hinting at potential short-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands showed significant expansion, confirming heightened volatility.

Overview and Price Movement

Liquity/Tether (LQTYUSDT) opened at 0.771 on 2025-09-23 at 12:00 ET, hit a high of 0.784, and a low of 0.727, closing at 0.744 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-24. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 697,196.5, with notional turnover reaching approximately $513,861. The price action displayed a bearish bias with a sharp selloff in early morning hours.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart showed a bearish engulfing pattern at 2025-09-23 17:00, where the price opened at 0.771 and closed at 0.779, only to be engulfed by a following candle that opened at 0.779 and closed at 0.77. A significant bearish reversal occurred around 0.76, where a long-tailed candle formed. Key support levels emerged around 0.75 and 0.744, while resistance is at 0.766 and 0.768. A doji formed at 0.763, indicating indecision.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described is based on a combination of moving average crossovers and RSI-based momentum triggers. A buy signal is generated when the 20-period moving average crosses above the 50-period on the 15-minute chart, and the RSI crosses back above 50 from oversold territory. A sell signal occurs when the 20-period moving average crosses below the 50-period and RSI falls below 50. This strategy could have been triggered around 0.747–0.748 during the early morning ET rally. Given the current RSI at oversold levels, a short-term bounce could align with the strategy's parameters, though further confirmation is needed.

Moving Averages and Momentum

A 20/50 EMA crossover on the 15-minute chart confirmed the bearish bias as the 20-period line dipped below the 50-period line during the selloff. The daily chart showed the 50-period EMA at 0.764, while the 200-period EMA was at 0.759. The price closed below the 50-period EMA, suggesting continued bearish pressure. On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period EMA crossed the 50-period EMA twice during the last 12 hours, indicating short-term volatility.

The MACD turned negative early in the session, confirming bearish momentum. RSI bottomed at ~28 around 0.744, signaling potential short-term bounce from oversold levels. However, RSI remains below 50, implying bearish bias continues unless a sustained rally occurs above 0.75.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands showed a major expansion starting at 0.766 and widening to 0.727, indicating heightened volatility during the selloff. The price closed near the lower band at 0.744, suggesting potential for a retest of the 0.75 level. The width of the bands also implies that volatility is likely to persist in the near term, with price likely to oscillate within this new range.

Volume and Turnover

Volume was unevenly distributed, with a massive spike at 0.744–0.727 where over 149,277.9 units traded, resulting in ~$110,000 of turnover. This volume divergence, where price and turnover moved in sync, confirmed the bearish move. However, volume declined sharply after 0.744, indicating lack of follow-through. A sharp increase in volume would be needed for a convincing reversal above 0.75.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the swing high at 0.784 and low at 0.727, key levels include 0.759 (38.2%), 0.752 (50%), and 0.745 (61.8%). The 61.8% level at 0.745 has been tested multiple times, with the price finding support before declining again. The 50% level at 0.752 may offer resistance on the way up, but a break above it could signal a temporary recovery.

Forward-Looking View and Risk Caution

The next 24 hours may see a test of the 0.75 support level, with a potential bounce to 0.756–0.758. However, sustained bullish momentum will require volume confirmation. A break below 0.744 could target 0.735–0.73, with increased volatility likely. Investors should remain cautious and watch for a break above 0.755 as a possible reversal signal. A sharp divergence in price and volume may still indicate deeper bearish continuation.