Liquidia (LQDA) Surges 16% on Record YUTREPIA Sales and Cash Flow Surge

Summary
• Liquidia’s stock rockets 16.37% to $36.96, hitting a 52-week high of $38.16
• Q4 YUTREPIA sales smash estimates at $90.1M, up 74% QoQ
• $30M+ cash flow and 85% prescription-to-patient conversion drive momentum

Liquidia’s (LQDA) intraday surge defies market norms as the biotech stock surges 16.37% on robust Q4 YUTREPIA sales and cash flow. With a 52-week high of $38.16 and a 74% QoQ sales jump, the stock’s volatility underscores its transformational momentum. Investors are now parsing technicals and options data to gauge sustainability.

YUTREPIA’s Commercial Breakthrough Ignites Liquidity Surge
Liquidia’s 16.37% rally stems from its preliminary Q4 YUTREPIA sales of $90.1M, exceeding estimates by 14.5%, and full-year 2025 sales of $148.3M. The 74% QoQ growth, coupled with $30M+ positive cash flow and 85% prescription-to-patient conversion, signals strong commercial execution. Over 2,800 unique prescriptions and 2,200 patients started since June 2025 validate market adoption, while the 750 prescriber count highlights growing physician confidence. These metrics directly correlate with the stock’s intraday surge to $38.16.

Biotech Sector Volatile as AMGN Slides 1.16%
The biotech sector remains mixed, with Amgen (AMGN) down 1.16% despite Liquidia’s outperformance. While AMGN’s decline reflects broader market caution, Liquidia’s rally is product-specific, driven by YUTREPIA’s commercial success. Sector peers like Arcus Biosciences (RCUS) and Kymera (KYMR) trade flat to down, underscoring Liquidia’s unique catalyst.

Options Playbook: Leverage High-IV Puts and ETF Positioning
• 200-day MA: $21.80 (below) • RSI: 40.5 (neutral) • MACD: 0.11 (bearish) • Bollinger Bands: $30.46–$36.76

Liquidia’s technicals suggest a short-term bearish trend with a bullish engulfing pattern, but the 52-week high at $38.16 and 85% conversion rate hint at resilience. The 30D support at $34.37 and 200D support at $13.89 frame key levels. High-IV options like LQDA20260116P30 and LQDA20260116P30.5 offer leverage for bullish scenarios. The XBI ETF (Biotech Select Sector SPDR) at $36.50 could mirror sector momentum.

Top Option 1: LQDA20260116P30
• Code: LQDA20260116P30 • Type: Put • Strike: $30 • Expiry: 2026-01-16 • IV: 300.91% • Leverage: 32.50% • Delta: -0.2616 • Theta: -0.2603 • Gamma: 0.02025 • Turnover: 1.17M
• IV (high volatility), Leverage (bullish exposure), Delta (moderate sensitivity), Theta (rapid time decay), Gamma (strong price sensitivity).
• This put offers 32.5% leverage with 300% IV, ideal for a 5% upside scenario (target $38.81). Payoff: max(0, $38.81 - $30) = $8.81 per contract.

Top Option 2: LQDA20260116P30.5
• Code: LQDA20260116P30.5 • Type: Put • Strike: $30.5 • Expiry: 2026-01-16 • IV: 284.07% • Leverage: 26.14% • Delta: -0.2705 • Theta: -0.2460 • Gamma: 0.02182 • Turnover: 29.99K
• IV (high volatility), Leverage (bullish exposure), Delta (moderate sensitivity), Theta (rapid time decay), Gamma (strong price sensitivity).
• This put provides 26.14% leverage with 284% IV, suitable for a 5% upside (target $38.81). Payoff: max(0, $38.81 - $30.5) = $8.31 per contract.

Aggressive bulls may consider LQDA20260116C33 into a breakout above $38.16, leveraging 11.27% leverage and 45.67% IV.

Backtest Liquidia Stock Performance
The backtest of LQDA's performance following a 16% intraday increase from 2022 to the present shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 53.19%, the 10-Day win rate is 54.98%, and the 30-Day win rate is 58.76%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest was 16.20% over 30 days, suggesting that LQDA can capitalize on intraday surges to generate decent returns.

Act Now: YUTREPIA’s Momentum Could Fuel 2026 Expansion
Liquidia’s 16.37% surge is underpinned by YUTREPIA’s commercial success and $30M+ cash flow, but technicals suggest caution. Watch for a breakdown below $30.46 (lower Bollinger Band) or a breakout above $38.16 (52-week high). The biotech sector’s mixed performance, with AMGN down 1.16%, highlights the need for product-specific positioning. Investors should prioritize LQDA20260116P30 for leverage and XBI ETF for sector exposure. A 5% upside scenario could extend gains, but liquidity risks remain. Watch the J.P. Morgan presentation on 1/14/26 for catalysts.