Lion Copper's Nevada Project: Assessing the 2029 Production Path

The Yerington project is built on a substantial resource base, with proven reserves of 2.14 billion pounds of copper and a planned mine life of 12 years. This foundation supports a production profile targeting an average of 120 million pounds per year, with a peak output of 151 million pounds annually. The plan relies on a modernized, brownfield approach, utilizing existing infrastructure and a combination of open-pit mining with both oxide and sulfide heap leach operations.

A key differentiator is the integration of Rio Tinto's Nuton™ technology, a proprietary bioleaching process designed to enhance copper recovery and produce high-purity cathode. This technology is central to the project's economics and environmental profile, with ongoing work to refine it for improved efficiency and potentially lower capital intensity. The project's location in a Tier-1 U.S. jurisdiction and its use of established infrastructure are intended to accelerate development and reduce permitting risks.

The timeline for reaching production is now being funded and accelerated. A $30.5 million investment from Nuton LLC, a Rio Tinto venture, was received in January 2026 to advance the Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) and permitting. This follows a prior commitment of up to US$31 million for Stage 3 of an earn-in agreement, which explicitly aims to progress the DFS and permitting work. The company's stated goal is to qualify under the U.S. federal FAST-41 permitting framework to enhance predictability. With this funding, the project is on track for first production by 2029.

Competitive Advantages and Economic Profile

The project's case rests on a blend of operational efficiency, technological innovation, and a favorable business environment. Its inherent strengths are designed to translate into a robust financial profile.

First, the brownfield site is a major advantage. Built on the historic Yerington and MacArthur mines, the project leverages established infrastructure, water access, and mining-friendly regulations. This reduces the capital intensity of development and accelerates the timeline, as much of the permitting and logistical groundwork has already been done. The low strip ratio of 0.3:1 further enhances cost efficiency, meaning very little waste rock needs to be moved per ton of ore.

Second, the proprietary Nuton™ bio-heap-leach technology is central to the economics. This process aims to eliminate the need for conventional milling and large tailings facilities, which are capital-intensive and carry significant environmental and regulatory overhead. By enabling high-purity copper cathode production directly from the leach pads, it promises lower operating costs and a smaller environmental footprint. The technology is already being applied, with Nuton LLC committing up to US$31 million to advance the project and provide the technology, a clear vote of confidence in its potential.

Finally, the location in Nevada provides a critical jurisdictional edge. The CEO notes, Nevada is an extremely mining-friendly and stable jurisdiction with very clear, well-understood permitting pathways. This predictability is a major risk mitigant for investors, reducing the uncertainty and potential delays that plague projects in less supportive regions. The company is actively working to qualify under the U.S. federal FAST-41 permitting framework to further enhance this predictability.

The financial case, based on a prefeasibility study, supports this setup. At a base-case copper price of $4.30 per pound, the project models a post-tax net present value (NPV) of US$694 million and an internal rate of return of 14.6%. The initial capital expenditure is estimated at $413 million, with a post-tax payback period of 5.0 years. These metrics, combined with the operational and regulatory advantages, outline a project designed for efficient, scaled production starting in 2029.

Market Context and Financial Sensitivity

The project's financial case is being written against a backdrop of intense market pressure. Copper prices have surged to record highs, rallying by more than 20% since the start of 2025. This move is driven by a severe supply shortage, with a global refined copper deficit of ~330 kmt (thousand metric tons) forecast for 2026. The imbalance stems from acute disruptions, including a prolonged closure at Indonesia's Grasberg mine and downgraded output from Chile's Quebrada Blanca. This tightness creates a bullish near-term outlook, with J.P. Morgan projecting prices to reach $12,500/mt in the second quarter of 2026.

Yet the path ahead is fraught with uncertainty. Price forecasts from major banks diverge sharply. While J.P. Morgan sees a sustained rally, Goldman Sachs Research anticipates a decline, forecasting prices to fall to $11,000 per tonne by the end of the year. The key driver for this bearish view is tariff uncertainty. Goldman expects a 15% tariff on refined copper to be announced in mid-2026, which has already spurred stockpiling in the U.S. and supported prices. Once that decision is made, the market is likely to refocus on a large global surplus, putting renewed pressure on the metal.

This volatility is the project's central financial risk. Its economics, as modeled in the prefeasibility study, are sensitive to the copper price. The base case uses a price of $4.30 per pound, which is roughly equivalent to $9,480 per metric ton. That leaves a wide gap between the current market and the model's assumption. The project's robust NPV and IRR are predicated on securing a favorable price environment. If the Goldman Sachs scenario unfolds and prices settle near $11,000/mt, the project's margins would be significantly compressed. Conversely, if J.P. Morgan's bullish forecast holds, the financial case would be even stronger.

The bottom line is that Lion Copper's 2029 production path is not just a function of engineering and permitting. It is a bet on a specific commodity price trajectory. The project's financial resilience hinges on navigating the next 18 months of volatile market conditions and executing its development plan efficiently to deliver copper when the market may be shifting.

Execution Risks and Catalysts to Watch

The path to 2029 production is now defined by a clear sequence of milestones and risks. The immediate catalyst is the completion of the Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS), which will provide the final, bankable blueprint for the project. Lion Copper has secured the necessary funding to advance this work, with a $30.5 million investment from Nuton LLC received in January 2026 specifically to drive the DFS and permitting. This study will lock in the detailed economics, capital costs, and a precise construction timeline, transforming the project from a promising plan into a concrete development schedule.

The primary execution risk is navigating the permitting process efficiently. While the project's location in Nevada offers a significant advantage with its mining-friendly regulations, the timeline remains tight. The company is actively working to qualify under the U.S. federal FAST-41 permitting framework to enhance predictability, but the process itself is a major hurdle. Any delays here could jeopardize the 2029 target, making the successful and timely completion of the DFS and the subsequent permitting engagement the critical next steps.

Finally, the project's long-term economic case is contingent on the copper market's trajectory. The current bullish setup, driven by a global refined copper deficit of ~330 kmt forecast for 2026, provides a strong tailwind. However, the market outlook is volatile, with forecasts diverging sharply. If the supply-demand balance begins to ease significantly before production starts, the high prices that underpin the project's financial model could retreat. The project's success, therefore, depends not only on flawless execution but also on the market remaining tight through the development phase.