Linea/Turkish Lira (LINEATRY) Market Overview

• Price declined from 1.1849 to 1.1358, with a 24-hour low at 1.1318.
• RSI and MACD signal weakening momentum with potential oversold conditions.
• Bollinger Bands show widening volatility, with price near the lower band.
• Volume increased during the downward move, indicating bearish conviction.
• Fibonacci retracements highlight 61.8% support at ~1.147, now being tested.

24-Hour Price Summary

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-10-04, Linea/Turkish Lira (LINEATRY) opened at 1.1703 and reached a high of 1.1873 before closing at 1.1358 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-05. The pair recorded a low of 1.1318 during the session. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 57,554,885.0, with a notional turnover of approximately 62,360,478.8 Turkish Lira.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows a clear bearish bias with multiple bearish engulfing patterns and a long lower shadow (doji) at 1.1646 on 2025-10-05 02:00, suggesting indecision and potential reversal. Key support levels include 1.147 (Fib 61.8%) and 1.1318 (24-hour low), with resistance at 1.166 and 1.1735. A significant breakdown from 1.1849 to 1.1358 indicates a possible continuation of the bearish trend.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute timeframe, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages show a steep bearish crossover with the price well below both, reinforcing the downtrend. Daily moving averages (50/100/200) are in a similar alignment, with the 200-day MA acting as a strong bearish reference point. The price remains below all key moving averages, supporting the bearish narrative.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has crossed below the signal line, forming a bearish crossover, while the histogram shows negative momentum, indicating the trend is gaining strength. RSI has dropped to 28, entering oversold territory, though this may indicate exhaustion rather than a reversal. Price and RSI have not yet aligned, suggesting the move lower may continue unless a bullish reversal confirms at a key level.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has increased, with the upper and lower bands widening. Price currently sits near the lower band at 1.1358, which could trigger a retest of the 1.147 Fib level or a possible bounce. A break below the lower band would indicate a high-probability extension of the downtrend, with the next target near 1.118.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the initial drop from 1.1849 to 1.1666, and again during the final leg to 1.1318, confirming bearish conviction. Turnover increased in alignment with price action, particularly in the last two hours of the session, showing no divergence. The sustained increase in both volume and turnover supports the continuation of the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the most recent 15-minute swing from 1.1666 to 1.1849, key levels at 38.2% (1.175), 50% (1.1755), and 61.8% (1.1756) have been tested and rejected. On the daily chart, the key 61.8% level at ~1.147 is currently in play. A close below this could trigger further bearish activity toward 1.118.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy based on bearish engulfing patterns and RSI in oversold territory may prove effective for short-term short positions. The pattern typically results in continuation after confirmation, particularly when volume increases and MACD trends lower. A stop-loss near the most recent swing high (1.1756) could manage risk, with a target at 1.1318 and beyond if volatility continues to expand.