Lindblad’s 2026 Q2 Call: Yield Growth Timing, Fuel Cost Signals, and Guidance Assumptions Clash

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Date of Call: Aug 3, 2026

Financials Results

• Revenue: $199.2M, an increase of $31.3M, or 18.6% compared to the prior year
• EPS: Loss of $0.02 per share, compared to a loss of $0.18 per share in Q2 2025
• Gross Margin: 48.5%, an improvement of 290 basis points compared to the prior year

Guidance:

• Revenue for full-year 2026 guidance raised to a range of $830 million to $860 million, up from previous range of $800 million to $850 million.
• Net yield per available guest night expected to increase 4.5% to 5.5% year-over-year, up from prior guidance of 4% to 5%.
• Adjusted EBITDA guidance maintained at a range of $130 million to $140 million.
• Available guest nights expected to be approximately flat year-over year in the second half of 2026.
• Bookings continue to pace ahead for 2027 and 2028.

Business Commentary:

Revenue Growth and Strategic Execution:

• Lindblad Expeditions reported total company revenue growth of 19% to $199 million in Q2 compared to $168 million in Q2 of the previous year.
• The growth was driven by the company's strategic approach, including a strong demand generation strategy and successful deployment optimization.

Occupancy and Yield Improvement:

• The company achieved 91% occupancy, marking the highest second-quarter occupancy in 10 years, and a record net yield of $1,294 per guest night, up 4% from the previous year.
• This improvement was despite a 12% increase in capacity and was attributed to effective demand generation efforts and product mix optimization.

Cost Management and Efficiency:

• Lindblad Expeditions reduced fuel consumption by over 3% despite a 12% increase in capacity, contributing to a 150 basis points improvement in adjusted EBITDA margins.
• This was achieved through cost innovation initiatives, contract renegotiations, and a more data-driven operational approach.

Land Experiences Segment Expansion:

• The land experiences segment grew by 23% to $70 million, with a 13% increase in revenue per guest.
• Growth was supported by new product introductions and strong sales trends, particularly in off-the-beaten-path itineraries like the Alaska Grand Slam.

2026 Revenue and Booking Momentum:

• The company raised its 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $830 million to $860 million, up from the previous guidance of $800 million to $850 million.
• This adjustment reflects strong booking trends and momentum driven by effective demand generation and a robust product lineup.

Sentiment Analysis:

Overall Tone: Positive

• Management expressed pride in strong demand, healthy balance sheet, and disciplined growth approach. Statements include 'I'm excited to share our demonstrates the strength of our strategic approach', 'occupancy increased to 91%... our highest second quarter percent in 10 years', 'net yield increased 4%... a record for the second quarter', and 'we believe the company is well positioned for the remainder of 2026 and beyond'.

Q&A:

• Question from Ian Zaffino (Oppenheimer): Really good quarter... on the occupancy side... how much more runway do we have here... where that could ultimately go?
  Response: Management believes there is potential to continue growing yields at a healthy rate, supported by improved demand generation, product mix, and additional revenue streams like onboard and extensions.

• Question from Ian Zaffino (Oppenheimer): ...Can you maybe just give us a little more color on the fuel?... And also... how are you kind of balancing [cash use between stock buybacks and M&A]?
  Response: Capital allocation priorities remain unchanged: first invest in the business, then evaluate returning capital to shareholders. Fuel prices are modeled at around $100/barrel for the remainder of the fiscal year, with EBITDA guidance maintained.

• Question from Eric DeLaurier (Craig-Hallum Capital Group): noticing the increased ownership stake on some of the land experiences here... Could you just provide some color around your updated thinking?
  Response: The company values the founder ownership model as a unique competitive advantage and aims for it to continue, though some founders have taken cash recently in win-win situations.

• Question from Eric DeLaurier (Craig-Hallum Capital Group): ...I just wanted to kind of get a high level sort of assessment of where you guys are in that sort of data driven evolution of the company.
  Response: Management has a pipeline of cost innovation initiatives, with 30+ new ones starting this year, delivering results over the next three years.

• Question from Mike Albanese (Benchmark / StoneX): ...could you just give us some insight into what you're seeing there [for 2028 bookings]? Is this still accelerating momentum?
  Response: The 2028 launch saw double the revenue in the first few weeks compared to the same period last year, driven by strong demand generation efforts.

• Question from Mike Albanese (Benchmark / StoneX): ...could you just provide some context maybe on price and how much price you're taking...?
  Response: For 2026, yield growth was primarily occupancy-driven; for 2027, net yield is expected to be more pricing-driven than occupancy-driven.

• Question from Stephen Wyszynski: ...how do you still kind of get into that range for EBITDA in the back half of the year?... maybe a little bit of help around the cadence...
  Response: Q1 had a one-time land insurance benefit, Q2 benefited from a 12% capacity increase, while the second half faces headwinds from elevated fuel, a National Geographic royalty step-up, and potential geopolitical cancellations.

• Question from Stephen Wyszynski: ...based on your guidance today, you guys are still assuming... crude is kind of in that $100 a barrel range. There should be upside to that EBITDA guidance range...
  Response: Guidance already incorporates a range of scenarios, including upside and downside, based on current modeling.

• Question from Stephen Wyszynski: Did you mention Disney anywhere in terms of where booking?
  Response: Disney is one of many demand generation initiatives benefiting from increased lead generation, National Geographic, and international expansion efforts, but bookings are not tracked separately.

Contradiction Point 1

Net Yield Growth Cadence

Expectations for the timing of stronger yield growth have shifted.

What are Mike Albanese's expectations for the earnings call? - Mike Albanese (Benchmark / StoneX)

2026Q2: Looking ahead to 2027, net yield growth is expected to be more pricing-driven than occupancy-driven. - Rick Goldberg(CFO)

How will price and traffic contribute to yield growth for the second half of 2027 and into 2028? - Steven Wieczynski (Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated)

2026Q1: Significant capacity expansion (double-digit growth in Q2) will lead to lower net yield growth in Q2, with stronger growth expected in the second half of the year. - Rick Goldberg(CFO)

Contradiction Point 2

Fuel Cost Impact on Guidance

The treatment of fuel cost certainty and its impact on guidance appears inconsistent.

What were Unknown Firm's earnings call results under Stephen Wyszynski? - Stephen Wyszynski (Unknown Firm)

2026Q2: The guidance range already incorporates modeling for various outcomes, including both upside and downside scenarios for fuel. It is the most accurate forecast based on current knowledge. - Natalia (CEO)

If fuel prices decrease below the assumed $100/barrel, is there potential for EBITDA guidance to increase? - Steven Wieczynski (Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated)

2026Q1: A slight uptick in cancellation rates in recent months prompted increased demand generation spending, which helped reenergize the market. Strong booking momentum for 2026 was maintained, and 2027 bookings accelerated due to commercial initiatives and demand generation efforts. - Natalya Leahy(CEO)

Contradiction Point 3

Drivers of Yield Growth for 2027

Contradiction on whether yield growth is more pricing or occupancy-driven.

Mike Albanese (Benchmark / StoneX) - Mike Albanese (Benchmark / StoneX)

2026Q2: Looking ahead to 2027, net yield growth is expected to be more pricing-driven than occupancy-driven. - Rick Goldberg(CFO)

Can you break down the contributions of price and traffic to yield growth for the second half of 2027 and into 2028? - Eric Wold (Texas Capital Securities)

2025Q4: The booking curve is expanding, with 2027 bookings ahead of 2026 by literally months at this point in the year. This allows Lindblad to drive price elasticity and maintain pricing momentum for both years. - Natalya Leahy(CEO)

Contradiction Point 4

EBITDA Guidance Conservatism and Assumptions

Contradiction on whether H2 EBITDA guidance is conservative given raised revenue.

Stephen Wyszynski (Unknown Firm) - Stephen Wyszynski (Unknown Firm)

2026Q2: The guidance assumes several factors: (1) elevated fuel prices, (2) a year-over-year royalty rate step-up, (3) flat capacity in the second half (vs. growth in H1), and (4) potential geopolitical cancellation risks. - Rick Goldberg(CFO)

Given the raised revenue guidance and fuel headwinds, has there been a change in cost assumptions affecting the EBITDA guidance for the back half of the year, and can you clarify the cadence? - Steven Wieczynski (Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated)

2025Q4: EBITDA growth is expected to be stronger in the second half of the year. - Rick Goldberg(CFO)

Contradiction Point 5

Fuel Cost Assumptions and Impact

Contradiction on fuel price stability and its impact on guidance.

Ian Zaffino (Oppenheimer) - Ian Zaffino (Oppenheimer)

2026Q2: Prices have remained consistent with Q1 levels (~$100/barrel) through Q2. The company is modeling a range of scenarios, including sustained high prices, and the EBITDA guidance range already accounts for this headwind. - Rick Goldberg(CFO)

Can you provide more color on the fuel cost headwind and assumptions going forward, and how are you balancing cash usage between stock buybacks and M&A aspirations? - Steven Wieczynski (Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated)

2025Q4: The company ended 2025 with 88% occupancy and is confident in reaching historical levels of 90% in 2026. Yield growth is expected to be in the mid-single digits, dependent on the booking curve and absence of geopolitical disruptions. - Natalya Leahy(CEO) & Rick Goldberg(CFO)

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