Lilly’s Breakthrough Data Positions Structure Therapeutics as a Key Player in the GLP-1 Race

The recent release of Eli Lilly’s (LLY) Phase 3 data for its oral GLP-1 receptor agonist, orforglipron, has sent shockwaves through the diabetes and weight-management markets. JPMorgan analysts labeled the results “highly favorable,” with the drug demonstrating both robust efficacy and a safety profile that could redefine industry standards. For investors, the implications extend far beyond Lilly itself. Smaller players like Structure Therapeutics (GPCR) now find themselves in a prime position to capitalize on this breakthrough, while competitors like Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) face a more nuanced path forward.

The Lilly Data: A Landmark for Oral Therapies

Lilly’s Phase 3 ACHIEVE-1 trial showed orforglipron delivered statistically significant improvements in glycemic control and weight loss. At the highest dose (36 mg), patients achieved a 1.6% reduction in HbA1c (vs. 0.1% for placebo) and 7.9% weight loss after 40 weeks. Importantly, the drug’s tolerability profile—marked by an 8% treatment discontinuation rate—exceeded JPMorgan’s low-teens expectations. This outcome is critical because it addresses a major hurdle in the GLP-1 class: gastrointestinal side effects that often lead to treatment discontinuation.

The data also validated orforglipron’s unique mechanism as an oral small-molecule agonist, distinguishing it from injectables like Ozempic and Rybelsus. Unlike Novo Nordisk’s Rybelsus, which requires fasting, orforglipron can be taken with food or water, enhancing patient convenience. JPMorgan analysts highlighted this as a “game-changer,” projecting the drug could capture a significant share of the $5 billion annual market for GLP-1 therapies by 2030.

Lilly’s shares surged 11% premarket to $817.00 following the data, reflecting investor confidence in the drug’s commercial potential.

Structure Therapeutics: The Direct Beneficiary

Structure Therapeutics’ stock is the clear winner here. Its lead candidate, aleniglipron, is a similarly structured oral GLP-1 agonist in Phase 3 development. JPMorgan analysts argue that Lilly’s data “derisks the category,” meaning Structure’s drug can now rely on orforglipron’s safety benchmark to accelerate approvals and reduce development risks.

Analyst forecasts for Structure paint an optimistic picture:
- Average 12-month target price: $81.42 (a 270.5% upside from its April 2025 price of $21.98).
- Broker consensus: An average recommendation of 1.6 (on a 1-to-5 scale), firmly in “Outperform” territory.

The firm’s second asset, ACCG-2671, a next-gen oral GLP-1 agonist, further strengthens its pipeline. JPMorgan notes that Structure’s smaller market cap ($1 billion vs. Viking’s $2+ billion) and proximity to market entry (with aleniglipron’s Phase 3 nearing completion) position it as a more compelling buy.

Viking Therapeutics: A Niche Play, But Not Unscathed

Viking’s oral obesity drug, VK-2735, faces a more complex scenario. While JPMorgan expects mid-single-digit share gains for Viking, the firm acknowledges that Lilly’s dominance in safety and efficacy could limit late entrants. However, the report emphasizes that VK-2735’s “highly tolerable” profile—critical in a market where patient adherence is king—retains a viable niche.

Competitive Dynamics: Pfizer’s Exit and the Shift to Orals

Pfizer’s discontinuation of its rival oral GLP-1 drug, danuglipron, due to liver toxicity, has further tilted the landscape in favor of Structure and Viking. This leaves Lilly and Novo Nordisk as the injectable leaders, while oral therapies like orforglipron and aleniglipron aim to capture the convenience-driven market.

Risks and Considerations

JPMorgan’s analysis does not ignore potential pitfalls. Pricing pressure in the crowded GLP-1 market and the need for Phase 4 confirmatory trials could temper optimism. However, the firm’s base-case scenario assumes Lilly’s orforglipron secures FDA approval under the Accelerated Approval Pathway, with a target price of $420 per share.

Conclusion: Structure’s Time to Shine

Lilly’s data has not only validated the feasibility of oral GLP-1 therapies but also set a new safety standard that smaller companies like Structure can leverage. With a 270.5% upside potential and a robust pipeline, Structure is primed to emerge as a leader in this $5 billion market. Meanwhile, Viking’s role remains secondary, though its tolerability advantages ensure it will not be sidelined entirely.

The broader picture is clear: the shift toward oral GLP-1 agonists is irreversible, driven by patient demand for convenience and safety. Structure Therapeutics, with its advanced pipeline and JPMorgan’s stamp of approval, stands to benefit most immediately. For investors seeking exposure to this transformative space, GPCR’s stock offers a high-risk, high-reward opportunity with a compelling data-backed case.

In a market racing to replace injectables with pills, Structure is sprinting ahead.