Lightning Bolt Whale Continues to Reduce Long Position by 16.96 BTC

Bitcoin ETFs recorded $697.25 million in net inflows on Monday, the largest daily total since early October. This marked a significant turnaround for the ETFs, which had seen outflows in the preceding weeks. The inflows were led by BlackRock's IBIT with $372.47 million, followed by Fidelity's FBTC with $191.2 million according to TradingView data.

The inflows into the ETFs coincided with a broader recovery in the crypto market. Bitcoin rose 1.53% in the past 24 hours to trade at $93,683, while Ether added 2.8% to $3,226. XRP saw a notable increase of 12.56% in the past 24 hours as reported.

Meanwhile, Ethereum ETFs also recorded net inflows of $168.13 million. This followed $161 million in inflows for Ethereum ETFs earlier in the week. Analysts suggest that the inflows indicate renewed risk appetite and confidence in regulated crypto exposure as the new year begins.

Why Did This Happen?

BlackRock moved 2,400 BTC and 24,760 ETH into Coinbase amid $2.2 billion in crypto options expiring today. These deposits were likely to offload the coins following daily net outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs on January 8. BlackRock's IBIT fund saw $193.34 million in outflows, contributing to a three-day streak of net outflows for BTC ETFs according to Yahoo Finance.

The asset manager previously deposited $294 million in BTC and ETH into Coinbase following outflows on January 7. This activity coincided with the expiry of $2.2 billion in crypto options on Deribit, potentially sparking volatility in the market as reported.

How Did Markets React?

The crypto market is also on alert for the U.S. December 2025 jobs report, which could influence the Fed's rate policy. A weaker-than-expected report with a rise in the unemployment rate would be seen as bullish for the market, increasing the likelihood of rate cuts. Conversely, a rebound in the labor market could delay further rate reductions according to Yahoo Finance.

Bitcoin's price surged as U.S. military action in Venezuela and the capture of President Nicolás Maduro sparked speculation of a shadow BTC reserve. Analysts suggested that if true, the U.S. might seize the coins and add them to its strategic BTC reserve, reducing the likelihood of forced selling as reported.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Privacy-focused cryptocurrencies have outperformed the market in 2025 and are expected to continue in 2026. Monero and Zcash have led in performance, with Monero reaching a new all-time high above $567. Privacy coins are gaining traction due to growing concerns over blockchain surveillance and the need for anonymity according to Yahoo Finance.

On-chain data indicates that Bitcoin whales are not buying the dip. Wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC have reduced their balances to around 220,000 BTC, the fastest decline since 2023. This suggests that large holders anticipate further price declines and are not positioning for a rebound as reported.

Bitcoin's recent move above $90,000 has not been enough to attract steady buying from large investors. On-chain data shows that major holders remain cautious, and ETF activity indicates continued institutional caution. The BTC exchange whale ratio climbed to 0.504, often associated with periods of increased selling according to LiveBitcoinNews.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $681 million in weekly outflows, despite positive inflows on Monday. This suggests that institutional demand remains uneven. Bitcoin ETFs have seen over $1.16 billion in net inflows in the first two days of 2026, but outflows have persisted according to TradingView.

Analysts are closely watching the next moves in the market. If ETF flows continue to support the price while on-chain capital shrinks, the floor for Bitcoin may remain intact. However, if flows reverse and on-chain selling pressure increases, a deeper correction could occur according to TradingNews.

The Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the outcome of the U.S. jobs report are also key factors to monitor. A weaker labor market would likely support rate cuts, which could benefit the crypto market. Conversely, a strong report could delay policy easing and increase macroeconomic pressure on Bitcoin as reported.