Lido DAO/Tether (LDOUSDT) Market Overview

• LDOUSDT opened at 0.939, reached a high of 1.0306, and closed at 0.9248, with total volume of 65.6M and turnover of $62.4M.
• A bullish breakout to 1.0306 was followed by a sharp correction, suggesting potential bearish exhaustion near 1.02–1.03.
• Key support at 0.920–0.930 appears strong, with bearish momentum intensifying after 03:00 ET.
• Volatility increased during the 18:00–20:00 ET window, with a 4.5% swing to the high of 1.0306.
• RSI showed overbought conditions at 85+ during the rally and oversold at 20+ during the dip, indicating balanced extremes.

Lido DAO/Tether (LDOUSDT) opened at 0.939 on 2025-10-13 12:00 ET, touched an intraday high of 1.0306, and closed at 0.9248 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-14. Total 24-hour volume was 65.6 million tokens, with notional turnover amounting to $62.4 million. The pair displayed a volatile but structured move, forming multiple identifiable candlestick patterns.

Structure & Formations

The price action on LDOUSDT displayed several key patterns over the 24-hour period. A strong bullish engulfing pattern formed at 18:45 ET, where the pair surged from 1.0019 to 1.0072, signaling a potential short-term reversal from bearish to bullish momentum. This was followed by a series of lower highs and lower closes after 23:00 ET, indicating bearish dominance. Notably, a long-legged doji appeared at 00:00–00:15 ET, suggesting indecision at the top of the move. A key support zone emerged between 0.920–0.930, which held three times in the final hours of the session, confirming its significance.

Moving Averages

Using the 15-minute chart, LDOUSDT spent the majority of the session above both the 20EMA and 50EMA. The 20EMA crossed above the 50EMA between 18:00–19:00 ET, forming a golden cross that validated the bullish momentum. However, the cross reversed to a death cross by 03:00 ET as the 20EMA fell below the 50EMA, coinciding with the sharp downward leg from 1.02 to 0.92. The 50EMA remains slightly above the 100EMA, while the 200EMA is a distant 1.0306–1.0350, indicating long-term bearish pressure. The 50EMA could serve as a dynamic resistance if the price attempts a near-term retest of 1.02.

MACD & RSI

RSI reached overbought territory (85+) at 18:45 ET and again at 19:30 ET, followed by a rapid descent to oversold (20+) by 04:30 ET. This suggests a strong bearish reversal after the top was formed at 1.0306. The MACD line (not available in full) showed a divergence during the 19:00–20:00 ET rally, which typically signals a potential top. The histogram turned negative after 20:00 ET and remained bearish throughout the final 9 hours of the session, indicating sustained bearish momentum and lack of buying pressure.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility was clearly visible in the expansion of Bollinger Bands from 18:00–21:00 ET, as the price moved from the lower band to the upper band, reaching the 1.0306 high. After that, volatility contracted sharply, with the price consolidating within the lower half of the bands from 23:00 ET onward. This contraction could indicate a period of consolidation before a potential breakout or continuation. The price closed just above the lower band at 0.9248, indicating that short-term bearish bias remains intact.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked multiple times during the session, most notably at 18:00–19:00 ET and 05:00–06:00 ET. The first spike coincided with the bullish breakout to 1.0306, while the second was a bearish confirmation as the price moved from 0.97 to 0.92 in under two hours. Notional turnover reached a peak of $1.03 million during the 18:00–19:00 ET window, which supported the price surge. A notable divergence occurred between volume and price action during the 01:30–03:00 ET window, where volume decreased while the price continued to fall. This could suggest a weakening of the bearish momentum and a possible bottom forming.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 18:00–21:00 ET move, the 61.8% level is at 0.983, which held during the 23:00–01:00 ET pullback. The 38.2% level at 0.997 was briefly tested twice but failed to hold, suggesting bearish bias. The 50% level at 0.997 also acted as resistance. On the daily chart, the 38.2% Fibonacci level is at 0.945, and the 61.8% is at 0.920, both of which corresponded to key support levels in the final hours of the session. These levels may serve as potential targets for future reversals or continuation.

Backtest Hypothesis

The absence of MACD data for LDOUSDT on the current data provider complicates further backtesting. However, the observed price action aligns with several MACD-related signals, such as golden and death crosses, and histogram divergences. If we assume the 19:00–20:00 ET rally was a false break above the 1.0306 high (a “bull trap”), a backtest could explore MACD-based reversal strategies by manually identifying death-cross dates and testing subsequent bearish setups. Alternatively, using a more liquid symbol such as LDO/USDT on a different exchange could provide the necessary MACD data. A backtest could also evaluate if RSI-based entry points during overbought conditions (85+ RSI) would have captured the sharp sell-off post-19:00 ET.