Libya’s UN-Backed Electoral Reforms: A Path to Stability or Another Dead End?

The United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) has launched a high-stakes initiative to resolve the country’s electoral stalemate, with its Advisory Committee working to draft laws for parliamentary and presidential elections by mid-2025. The committee’s success could break a years-long political deadlock, but its efforts face formidable obstacles—from entrenched rivalries to geopolitical tensions—that could derail progress. For investors, the stakes are immense: a credible election process could unlock Libya’s economic potential, while failure risks further instability in a region already strained by conflict and resource competition.

Ask Aime: "Could the UN's Libya initiative boost the economy and secure stability in 2025?"

The Plan and Its Hurdles
The 20-member Advisory Committee, composed of Libyan experts, aims to finalize two election laws by April 2025 to address disputes over voter eligibility, electoral boundaries, and the formation of an interim government. The laws are part of UNSMIL’s broader strategy to unify the rival governments in Tripoli and the east, which have been at odds since the 2021 election collapse.

Yet the process is fraught with risks. Civil society groups like Lawyers for Justice in Libya (LFJL) have flagged four critical priorities to avoid repeating past failures:
1. Transparency: Public disclosure of the committee’s work and member selection to counter accusations of bias or foreign interference.
2. Public Engagement: Active involvement of Libyans through consultations to build trust and counter domestic and foreign spoilers.
3. Human Rights Protections: Ensuring laws safeguard civil liberties, including freedoms of speech and assembly, which have been suppressed under de facto authorities.
4. Integrity: Measures to disqualify corrupt actors and militia-backed candidates.

Ask Aime: "Will Libya's electoral reform break the deadlock?"

Geopolitical and Security Challenges
The committee’s success also hinges on navigating geopolitical rivalries. Russia’s growing military presence in eastern Libya, supported by General Khalifa Haftar’s forces, has raised Western concerns about destabilization. Meanwhile, the U.S. and EU emphasize the need to withdraw foreign fighters and mercenaries, whose activities risk prolonging violence.

Security Council members remain divided on how to pressure stakeholders. While Western nations urge Libya’s factions to prioritize elections, Russia has questioned the committee’s inclusivity, arguing that key groups—including former government representatives—are excluded.

Economic Implications for Investors
For investors, Libya’s political fate is inextricably tied to its economy, which depends heavily on oil. A successful election could stabilize oil production, which averaged just 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024—far below its capacity of 2.5 million bpd due to infrastructure sabotage and political disputes.

Stabilization could also unlock stalled projects in energy, infrastructure, and tourism. For example, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that resolving frozen state assets—worth an estimated $20 billion—could boost liquidity for public services and debt repayment. However, delayed elections risk prolonging economic stagnation: GDP contracted by 2.3% in 2023 due to fiscal fragmentation and currency devaluation.

Risks and Uncertainties
Despite the optimism, risks abound. The committee’s draft laws face opposition from militias and elites who benefit from the status quo. For instance, a proposed mandatory second round for presidential elections—even if a candidate wins more than 50% in the first—could delay results and provide opportunities for obstruction.

Additionally, recent municipal elections exposed vulnerabilities: while over 570,000 citizens registered (31% women), de facto authorities in some regions replaced elected candidates, undermining public trust.

Conclusion
UNSMIL’s Advisory Committee holds the key to Libya’s political and economic future, but its path is littered with pitfalls. If the committee can deliver transparent, inclusive laws that address human rights and integrity concerns, investors may see a resurgence in oil production, infrastructure investment, and regional stability.

However, failure risks deeper fragmentation. With 31% of Libyans living below the poverty line and a youth unemployment rate exceeding 30%, prolonged instability could fuel migration, conflict, and further economic collapse. Investors should monitor the committee’s progress closely—particularly its ability to engage the public and counter spoilers—while hedging against geopolitical risks.

For now, the jury remains out: Libya’s elections could be a turning point—or another chapter in a prolonged crisis. The stakes, for both Libyans and global investors, could not be higher.