Li Auto Surges 8% on Bullish Technicals and Heavy Volume

Introduction
Li Auto (LI) gained 7.96% in the latest trading session (2025-06-23), closing at $28.08 after trading between $27.22 and $28.16, accompanied by robust volume of 6.53 million shares. This analysis evaluates the technical landscape using multiple frameworks.
Candlestick Theory
The latest session formed a decisive bullish candle, engulfing the prior three days' losses and closing near the session high, signaling strong buying pressure. Key support is established at $25.88 (2025-06-20 low), aligning with the psychological $26.00 level. Resistance is evident near $28.74 (2025-06-16 high) and $29.59 (2025-06-10 high). A breakout above $28.74 on sustained volume may extend gains.
Moving Average Theory
The current price trades above all key moving averages (50-day, 100-day, 200-day), confirming a bullish intermediate to long-term trend structure. The 50-day MA recently crossed above the 100-day MA, forming a golden cross, while the 200-day MA slopes upward. This alignment supports the uptrend, with the 50-day MA ($26.50 area) acting as dynamic support. Sustained price leadership above these MAs suggests bullish momentum.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram has turned positive, signaling growing bullish momentum as the MACD line crosses above the signal line. KDJ shows the %K (87) and %D (81) in overbought territory, reflecting strong short-term momentum but warning of potential consolidation. No bearish divergence is observed, though extended KDJ levels may precede short-term profit-taking. The MACD-KDJ confluence supports near-term upside bias.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands are expanding after a contraction phase, indicating rising volatility and supporting the breakout momentum. Price closed near the upper band ($28.30), suggesting overextension. A consolidation or minor pullback toward the 20-day moving average (mid-band, ~$26.80) is plausible. Band expansion alongside high volume validates the breakout’s strength.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume surged 83% during the 7.96% rally, confirming bullish conviction and institutional participation. Earlier declines (e.g., 2025-06-17’s -4.47% drop) saw elevated volume, suggesting distribution was absorbed. The volume-weighted average price (VWAP) for the latest rally aligns with the closing price, reinforcing sustainability. Breakout validation requires volume persistence above the 30-day average.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI surged to 75, entering overbought territory. While this may indicate short-term exhaustion, RSI can remain elevated in strong trends. Bearish divergence is absent; however, traders should monitor for reversal signals if RSI sustains above 75 without additional price gains. Historical overbought RSI readings (e.g., February 2025) preceded consolidations, not immediate reversals.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the swing low of $19.10 (2025-04-08) and swing high of $33.12 (2025-02-26), the 38.2% retracement ($27.77) was decisively breached. The 23.6% level ($29.81) becomes the next resistance, with the psychological $30.00 nearby. The 50% retracement ($26.11) now acts as major support, reinforced by the 50-day MA. Confluence between $27.77 (Fibonacci) and $28.74 (horizontal resistance) highlights a critical battleground.
Concluding Synthesis
Multiple indicators converge to support Li Auto’s bullish structure: The moving average golden cross, MACD uptick, volume-backed breakout, and Fibonacci clearance align with robust momentum. Overbought KDJ and RSI readings advise caution for near-term entry but do not negate the uptrend. Key watchpoints include volume sustainability above the 30-day average and price behavior around the $29.81 Fibonacci resistance. Divergence is minimal, though failure to hold $27.77 would signal vulnerability to a pullback toward $26.11 support.