Li Auto Surges 6.68% on Mysterious Momentum: Is This a Short-Term Rally or a New Trend?

Summary
• Li Auto (LI) rockets 6.68% intraday to $26.115, breaking above its 200-day moving average of $25.67
• Technicals show a bullish crossover with MACD (-0.389) and RSI (53.15) hinting at momentum
• Options frenzy: 213 contracts traded for the 26.5 strike call, 166.67% price change ratio

Li Auto’s stock is surging on a blend of technical momentum and speculative fervor, with the price climbing 6.68% to $26.115 as of 3:14 PM ET. The move defies immediate news catalysts but aligns with a short-term bullish pattern. Traders are scrambling to position in options, with the 26.5 strike call seeing 166.67% price gains and 213 contracts traded. The stock’s 52-week range (19.10–33.12) remains intact, but the 6.68% intraday pop suggests a breakout attempt.

Technical Momentum and Options Volatility Drive Li Auto’s Rally
Li Auto’s 6.68% surge is fueled by a combination of technical indicators and speculative options activity. The stock has pierced above its 200-day moving average ($25.67) and is trading near its 52-week high of $33.12. The MACD histogram (0.223) and RSI (53.15) suggest short-term bullish momentum, while the 30-day support/resistance range (23.97–24.04) has been decisively breached. Options data reveals aggressive call buying, particularly for the 26.5 strike (LI20250919C26.5) with a 166.67% price change ratio and 45.72% leverage. This suggests traders are betting on a continuation of the rally ahead of the September 19 expiration.

Automotive Sector Mixed as Tesla Trails Li Auto’s Surge
The broader automotive sector remains fragmented, with Tesla (TSLA) up 6.33% but trailing Li Auto’s 6.68% move. While both stocks show bullish momentum, Li Auto’s rally is more pronounced, driven by technical factors rather than sector-wide trends. Tesla’s 6.33% gain aligns with its role as a sector leader but lacks the speculative fervor seen in Li Auto’s options activity. The divergence highlights Li Auto’s potential as a short-term momentum play, though sector-wide catalysts remain absent.

Options and Technicals: Aggressive Calls for a Short-Term Rally
• 200-day MA: $25.67 (below current price)
• RSI: 53.15 (neutral to bullish)
• MACD: -0.389 (bullish crossover)
• Bollinger Bands: $22.92–$24.87 (price above upper band)

Li Auto’s technicals and options data point to a short-term bullish setup. Key levels to watch include the 200-day MA ($25.67) and the 52-week high ($33.12). The stock’s 6.68% intraday gain suggests a breakout attempt, supported by a MACD crossover and RSI neutrality. Two top options for aggressive bulls are:

• LI20250919C26.5
- Type: Call
- Strike: $26.50
- Expiration: 2025-09-19
- IV: 62.28% (moderate)
- Leverage: 45.72% (high)
- Delta: 0.426 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.160 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.206 (high sensitivity to price moves)
- Turnover: $5,534 (liquid)
- Payoff (5% up): $0.96 per contract
- Why: High leverage and gamma make this ideal for a short-term rally, with moderate IV and liquid turnover.

• LI20250919C27
- Type: Call
- Strike: $27.00
- Expiration: 2025-09-19
- IV: 63.62% (moderate)
- Leverage: 63.56% (high)
- Delta: 0.333 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.138 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.187 (high sensitivity to price moves)
- Turnover: $32,384 (liquid)
- Payoff (5% up): $0.81 per contract
- Why: Strong leverage and gamma, with liquid turnover and moderate IV, ideal for a continuation of the rally.

Action: Aggressive bulls should target the 26.5 and 27 strikes for a short-term breakout play. If $26.50 breaks, consider rolling into the 27 strike for higher leverage.

Backtest Li Auto Stock Performance
Here is the requested back-test of Li Auto (ticker LI.O) after days when the stock closed ≥ 7 % higher than the previous close, covering 3 Jan 2022 – 15 Sep 2025.(jgy-json-canvas)Key statistics (2022-01-03 → 2025-09-15):• Total return: -36.5 % • Annualized return: -5.0 % • Max drawdown: 54.4 % • Sharpe ratio: -0.13 • Average trade: -0.6 % (wins ≈ 13.7 % | losses ≈ -10.1 %)Quick take-aways1. Negative expectancy: Despite occasional strong follow-through (max single-trade gain 44 %), the average trade is slightly negative and the overall return is deeply underwater.2. High downside risk: Drawdowns greater than 50 % suggest the signal is unreliable as a standalone trigger.3. Skewed pay-off: Winners outperform losers in magnitude, but the win rate is low; additional filters (e.g., volume spike, broader-market trend) may be needed to tilt the edge positive.4. Risk control choice: A simple 10-day time stop was applied (no stop-loss/take-profit). Adjusting hold-time or adding stop parameters could materially change results.Feel free to explore alternative holding windows, add stop-loss / take-profit metrics, or combine the surge filter with other technical or fundamental criteria.

Li Auto’s Rally Gains Steam: Position for a 52-Week High Challenge
Li Auto’s 6.68% surge is a technical and options-driven rally with momentum intact. The stock’s MACD crossover, RSI neutrality, and options frenzy suggest a short-term breakout attempt toward the 52-week high of $33.12. Traders should monitor the 26.5 and 27 strike calls for aggressive positioning, while Tesla’s 6.33% gain underscores the sector’s mixed performance. A sustained move above $26.50 could trigger a retest of the 52-week high, making this a high-conviction trade for near-term gains.