Li Auto Surges 7.2% on Revised Guidance and Analyst Optimism—What’s Fueling the Rally?

Summary
• Li Auto (LI) surges 7.2% intraday, trading at $26.25 amid mixed analyst ratings and revised Q2 delivery guidance.
• August deliveries hit 28,529 units, with the Li Mega MPV nearing record highs and L-series EREVs declining.
• Options volatility spikes, with 2025-09-26 call options on 26.5 and 27 strikes seeing 121%–97% price change ratios.
• The stock trades above its 52-week low of $19.10 but remains 20% below its 52-week high of $33.12.
Li Auto’s 7.2% intraday rally has ignited a frenzy in options markets and technical indicators, driven by a combination of revised delivery guidance, mixed analyst sentiment, and sector-wide EV momentum. With the stock trading near its 200-day moving average and key options contracts showing explosive implied volatility, the question is whether this surge marks a sustainable rebound or a short-term bounce.

Revised Guidance and Analyst Optimism Ignite Short-Term Bullish Momentum
Li Auto’s 7.2% intraday surge is directly tied to its Q2 delivery performance exceeding revised guidance. After initially revising its Q2 delivery target downward in June, the company reported 111,074 units delivered—surpassing the revised 108,000-unit target. This resilience, coupled with 42 analysts maintaining a 'Buy' rating and a $27.98 median price target, has reignited investor confidence. The August delivery report, showing 28,529 units despite L-series declines, further underscores the company’s ability to pivot toward high-demand models like the Li Mega. However, mixed analyst sentiment and weak Q3 guidance from the company suggest this rally may be volatile.

EV Sector Gains Momentum as Tesla (TSLA) Rises 3.06%
The broader EV sector has shown resilience, with Tesla (TSLA) rising 3.06% on the same day. While Li Auto’s rally is driven by specific delivery outperformance, the sector-wide optimism reflects broader investor appetite for EVs amid improving charging infrastructure and product launches. However, Li Auto’s 7.2% move outpaces Tesla’s 3.06%, indicating sector-specific momentum tied to its revised guidance and product mix.

Options and Technicals: Capitalizing on Short-Term Bullish Momentum
• 200-day average: $25.67 (below current price) • RSI: 53.15 (neutral) • MACD: -0.39 (bullish crossover) • Bollinger Bands: $22.92–$24.87 (price above upper band)
• Gamma: 0.19–0.22 (high sensitivity to price moves) • IV: 60%–88% (elevated but not extreme)
Li Auto’s technicals suggest a short-term bullish bias, with the stock trading above its 200-day moving average and MACD crossing above the signal line. The RSI at 53.15 indicates no overbought conditions, leaving room for further upside. Key support at $23.97 and resistance at $24.03 (30D range) could dictate near-term direction. The 2025-09-26 options chain offers high-leverage plays:
• LI20250926C26.5: Call option with 175% price change ratio, 64.61% IV, 39.70% leverage, and 0.20 gamma. A 5% upside to $27.56 would yield a payoff of $1.06 per contract, or 65% return on strike price. High gamma and moderate delta make this ideal for aggressive bulls.
• LI20250926C27: Call option with 96.92% price change ratio, 88.23% IV, 19.55% leverage, and 0.09 gamma. A 5% upside would yield $0.56 per contract, or 21% return. High IV and liquidity (turnover: 581,624) make this a safer, high-liquidity play.
Aggressive bulls should target LI20250926C26.5 for a 65% return potential if the stock breaks $26.50. Conservative traders may prefer LI20250926C27 for its liquidity and moderate leverage.

Backtest Li Auto Stock Performance
Below is an interactive module that presents the quantitative back-test you requested. (The module will appear on the right-hand side of the chat—please scroll if you don’t see it immediately.)jgy-json-canvasKey take-aways (concise):• Time span: 3 Jan 2022 – 15 Sep 2025 • Total return: −19.77 %, annualised ≈ 15.75 % (high volatility) • Max draw-down: 66.07 % • Sharpe ratio: 0.24 (risk-adjusted performance weak)Assumptions & auto-filled choices:1. Entry/exit logic – The back-test engine opened positions at the day’s open when the 7 % intraday trigger occurred and closed them automatically under its default next-day close rule (no extra risk-control parameters were set). 2. Data source – Official Nasdaq OHLC data for LI.O from 1 Jan 2022 to 15 Sep 2025. 3. No stop-loss / take-profit – left blank to isolate the raw signal’s edge.Feel free to let me know if you’d like to add risk controls, adjust holding period, or compare against benchmarks.

Bullish Setup Confirmed—Act on Key Levels Before Expiry
Li Auto’s 7.2% rally is supported by technicals and options data, suggesting a short-term bullish continuation. The stock’s proximity to its 200-day average and elevated IV in the 2025-09-26 options chain indicate strong near-term momentum. Traders should monitor the $26.50 level for a breakout confirmation and the $24.03 support for a potential reversal. With Tesla (TSLA) rising 3.06%, the EV sector remains in focus. Act now: Buy LI20250926C26.5 for a 65% return potential if $26.50 is breached, or LI20250926C27 for a safer, high-liquidity play.