Li Auto Stock Rises 3.57% As Bullish Technicals Signal Potential Rebound

Li Auto (LI) shares rose 3.57% to close at $25.23 on September 29, 2025, with trading volume reaching 8.13 million shares. This analysis examines the technical posture using multiple methodologies.
Candlestick Theory
The recent price action shows a bullish engulfing pattern formed on September 29, where the day’s range ($24.70-$25.35) fully consumed the prior session’s bearish candle. This occurred near the $24.31 support level established on September 26. Resistance is evident at $27.10 (September 26 high) – a level tested twice in September where selling pressure emerged. The $22.60 low from August 27 represents major swing support.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA ($25.15) recently crossed below the 100-day MA ($25.80), suggesting near-term bearish momentum. However, the price remains above the rising 200-day MA ($24.40), preserving the long-term uptrend. Current consolidation between the 50-day and 200-day MAs reflects indecision. A sustained break above the 100-day MA would signal strength.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram shows diminishing bearish momentum as it approaches the zero line from below. The KDJ oscillator exited oversold territory (K: 35, D: 28) on September 29, with the %K line crossing above %D – a potential reversal signal. These align with the bullish candlestick formation but require volume confirmation for validation.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands contracted 18% in the past week, reflecting declining volatility ahead of the recent breakout. The close above the 20-day moving average ($25.05) and upper band ($25.30) suggests bullish momentum. Band expansion on advancing volume would confirm upside continuation.
Volume-Price Relationship
The September 29 rally occurred on 8.1M shares – 48% below the 15.6M volume seen during the September 26 selloff. This divergence raises sustainability concerns. Confirmation requires follow-through volume exceeding the 10-day average of 5.2M shares. The volume-weighted average price (VWAP) sits at $25.10, serving as immediate support.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (44) remains neutral after recovering from oversold conditions (<30) on September 26. While no divergence exists, the indicator shows room for further upside before approaching overbought territory. Previous overbought readings in July preceded 20% corrections, warranting vigilance near 70.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the August 27 low ($22.60) and September 26 high ($27.10), key retracement levels emerge: 23.6% ($26.04), 38.2% ($25.38), and 50% ($24.85). The current price near the 38.2% retracement ($25.23) aligns with the 100-day MA, creating a technical confluence zone. Holding this level may trigger a rally toward $26.04 resistance.
Confluence and Divergence
Confluence exists between Fibonacci support ($25.38), VWAP ($25.10), and the 50-day MA ($25.15), strengthening the significance of the $25.10-$25.40 zone. However, the volume divergence during the recent advance warrants caution. The KDJ bullish crossover and MACD convergence support upside potential, but require volume expansion for confirmation. Downside risks would increase below $24.85 (50% Fibonacci), which would target the 200-day MA near $24.40.