Li Auto Slumps 4.09% As Bearish Signals Converge At Key 30.50 Support

Li Auto (LI) concluded the most recent trading session with a 4.09% decline, closing at $30.50 after fluctuating between $30.42 and $31.36, accompanied by moderate trading volume. This downward movement warrants a multi-indicator technical assessment of its price trajectory.
Candlestick Theory
A bearish engulfing pattern emerged in the last two sessions (July 18-21), where a strong bullish candle ($31.36 close) was immediately negated by a larger bearish candle closing near its low ($30.50). This signals potential near-term exhaustion near the $31.36–$31.80 resistance zone. Immediate support is established at $30.42 (July 21 low), aligning with the July 14 swing high of $30.40. Failure to hold this level may target deeper support at $29.40–$29.50, a pivotal May–June consolidation area that previously reversed declines.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average (MA) currently hovers near $28.80, while the 100-day and 200-day MAs converge around $27.20–$27.50, reflecting a bullish long-term alignment. However, the recent close below the psychologically critical 50-day MA ($30.50) suggests short-term bearish pressure. A sustained break above the 100/200-day MAs would signal robust recovery potential, though current price action exhibits vulnerability to further mean reversion toward longer-term averages.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram shows weakening bullish momentum, with its signal line flattening near the zero line after a July recovery. This coincides with the KDJ indicator (particularly %K and %D) retreating from overbought territory (above 80 in mid-July). While MACD maintains a neutral stance, KDJ’s downturn from overbought levels supports near-term consolidation. Divergence emerges here: KDJ implies exhaustion, but MACD lacks a decisive bearish crossover, suggesting indecision in momentum.
Bollinger Bands
Bands contracted notably in June ($28–$30 range) before expanding during July’s rally to $32.02. Price now tests the lower band ($30.42), with bandwidth stabilization hinting at reduced volatility. A close below the lower band would signal oversold conditions, while a rebound toward the midline ($31.20) could restore bullish sentiment. The July 17 breakout above the upper band (followed by a rejection) aligns with the bearish engulfing pattern.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume surged 45% during the July 17 rally (9.23M shares), validating upward momentum. However, subsequent sessions saw declining volume during pullbacks, culminating in a moderate-volume drop on July 21. This divergence suggests limited conviction in the sell-off. A break below $30.42 on high volume would indicate strengthening bearish sentiment, while low-volume consolidation near this level may foreshadow stabilization.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI retreated from 67 (approaching overbought territory on July 18) to 52 currently, reflecting fading bullish energy. While mid-range RSI avoids extreme readings, its downturn alongside price rejection near resistance underscores near-term weakness. An RSI decline below 50 may accelerate selling pressure, but oversold conditions (RSI <30) are absent, limiting downside urgency.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the March 14 peak ($29.48) and June 13 trough ($27.76), key retracement levels emerge. The recent high of $32.02 (July 18) stalled near the 78.6% Fib level ($32.10), reinforcing resistance. Immediate support rests at the 50% retracement ($30.50), aligning with the July 21 low. Confluence exists here as both candlestick and Fib analysis identify $30.42–$30.50 as critical. A decisive break opens the 38.2% Fib support ($29.80), which converges with horizontal support near $29.40.
Confluence & Divergence Summary
Strong confluence appears near $30.40–$30.50, where candlestick, Bollinger Band, and Fibonacci support levels intersect. This zone’s breach could trigger accelerated selling toward $29.40–$29.50. Divergences exist between volume (diminishing bearish conviction) and KDJ (short-term exhaustion), versus MACD’s neutrality and RSI’s bearish tilt. Collectively, evidence suggests Li Auto faces near-term consolidation or retracement, but the bullish 100/200-day MA alignment and lack of oversold oscillators may contain downside below $29.40.