Li Auto Shares Plunge 4.5% to $26.93 Amid Bearish Technical Breakdown

Li Auto (LI) shares declined 4.50% in the most recent session, closing at $26.93, amid high trading volume. This move breaches several technical levels, warranting a comprehensive review across multiple indicators as follows.
Candlestick Theory
The absence of open price data precludes traditional pattern recognition, but price action analysis reveals that Li Auto breached the $27.00 psychological support with conviction. The recent long red candle on June 17 established immediate resistance at the prior session's low ($28.18). This breakdown follows a series of lower highs since early June, confirming bearish near-term sentiment. A cluster of daily lows near $26.80 from mid-May offers secondary support, while resistance consolidates at the $28.00-$29.00 former congestion zone.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average ($28.50) crossed below the 100-day moving average ($27.20) in early June, triggering a "death cross" that signals deteriorating intermediate momentum. Current price trades below all key moving averages, though the ascending 200-day moving average ($24.40) confirms the primary uptrend remains intact. The expanding distance between the 50-day and 200-day averages reflects elevated near-term volatility.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram shows sustained negative momentum, with the signal line maintaining its downtrend since early June. The KDJ oscillator presents a conflicting signal: While the %K line (4.5) and %D line (12.7) indicate extreme oversold conditions, the lack of bullish divergence advises caution. This non-confirmation between momentum oscillators suggests underlying weakness despite oversold readings.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Band width expanded 25% during June's decline, reflecting increasing volatility. Price currently hugs the lower band ($26.70), typically indicative of oversold conditions. However, the absence of reversal candlestick patterns at this level diminishes the reliability of this signal. The midline of the 20-day bands ($28.30) now acts as dynamic resistance.
Volume-Price Relationship
Distribution patterns dominate, with June's three highest volume days accompanying price declines of 3.84%, 3.57%, and 4.50%. Downside volume consistently exceeds upside volume at a 3:1 ratio over the past month. The most recent session's 3.91 million shares traded marked 42% above the 30-day average, validating the bearish breakout on elevated participation.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI reading of 28 confirms an oversold market, testing levels not seen since January's consolidation. Historically, reversals have occurred near this threshold, though false signals are prevalent in strong trends. Traders should note that current levels suggest heightened rebound potential but require price confirmation.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci theory to the primary swing low of $17.44 (August 2024) and swing high of $33.12 (February 2025), critical retracement levels emerge at $29.42 (23.6%), $27.13 (38.2%), $25.28 (50%), $23.43 (61.8%), and $20.80 (78.6%). The breach below the 38.2% retracement ($27.13) in the latest session opens the path toward the 50% level at $25.28. The congestion between $26.50-$27.00 from Q1 earnings now serves as a major resistance zone.
Confluence and Divergence
Confluence appears at the $25.28-25.50 area, where the 50% Fibonacci retracement, 200-day moving average, and major volume-based support cluster. Meanwhile, the divergence between oversold oscillators (KDJ and RSI) and declining MACD momentum suggests cautious interpretation of short-term bounce signals. The strongest technical agreement emerges in resistance near $27.00-$27.30, where the 38.2% Fibonacci level, 100-day moving average, and prior support converge.
Li Auto faces significant technical headwinds in the near term. While oversold readings hint at a potential relief rally, sustained trading below $27.00 with expanding downside volume favors further retracement toward the confluent support near $25.28. A close above $27.30 on expanding volume would be required to negate the current bearish trajectory.