Li Auto Plunges 6.3% – Will the Li i8 Launch Salvage Its Bull Case?

Summary
• Li Auto Inc. (LI) unveils Li i8, a six-seat BEV SUV with 5C supercharging and 720km range
• Stock plummets to $26.995 intraday low vs. $31.09 high amid delivery guidance cut
• Sector leader Tesla (TSLA) also down -1.64% as EV sector faces mixed signals
• Options frenzy: 18M shares traded, 300+ puts bought at key support levels
Today’s selloff reflects market jitters over Li Auto’s revised delivery guidance and broader EV sector headwinds. The company’s bold Li i8 launch—featuring proprietary 5C battery tech and 3,000 superchargers—struggles to offset concerns over short-term execution risks. With LI trading 6.3% below open at $27.34, traders are re-evaluating positioning as the stock approaches critical 52-week support.

Delivery Guidance Cut Overshadows Product Innovation
The stock’s 6.3% collapse stems from Li Auto’s revised Q2 delivery guidance of 108,000 units (vs. 123,000-128,000 prior), attributed to temporary sales system upgrades. While the Li i8’s 5C supercharging (500km in 10 mins) and 720km range represent engineering breakthroughs, short-term execution risks—particularly with 3,000 new superchargers—have spooked investors. The 321k-369k RMB price range aligns with expectations but fails to address near-term production scaling challenges. With 30-day support at $26.99 and 200-day average at $25.83, the sell-off reflects a tug-of-war between long-term EV optimism and near-term operational skepticism.

EV Sector Mixed as Tesla Drags Down Momentum
While Li Auto’s 6.3% drop outpaces the sector, Tesla’s -1.64% decline highlights broader EV headwinds. The VanEck Low Carbon Energy ETF (SMOG) down -0.64% and CCSO -1.99% suggest thematic underperformance. Tesla’s market cap dominance (29.6B) amplifies sector sentiment, yet Li Auto’s proprietary 5C tech and 3,000 superchargers position it differently from commoditized EV plays. The key divergence lies in Li’s family SUV focus vs. Tesla’s premium sedan strategy, though both face regulatory and margin pressures.

Bear Call Spreads and Covered Puts in a Volatile Playbook
• 200-day MA: $25.83 (below current price)
• RSI: 63.63 (neutral but approaching overbought)
• Bollinger Bands: 32.22 (upper), 28.60 (mid), 24.98 (lower)
• MACD: 0.63 (bullish), Signal: 0.58 (neutral), Histogram: 0.05 (rising)
Key levels to watch: 200-day MA at $25.83 (critical support) and 52W high at $33.12. The stock’s 322x PE ratio and 2.18% turnover rate suggest speculative positioning. With SMOG and CCSO down 0.6-2%, leveraged EV ETFs offer thematic exposure.

Top Options:
• LI20250808P26.5 (Put):
- Strike: $26.50
- Expiry: 2025-08-08
- IV: 53.03% (moderate)
- Leverage: 41.89%
- Delta: -0.36
- Theta: -0.00055
- Gamma: 0.149
- Turnover: 2,003
- Payoff: $0.84 per 5% downside (ST=26) | Why: High gamma ensures sensitivity to price drops, moderate IV suggests reasonable premium decay

• LI20250815P25 (Put):
- Strike: $25.00
- Expiry: 2025-08-15
- IV: 54.37% (balanced)
- Leverage: 63.32%
- Delta: -0.22
- Theta: -0.0113
- Gamma: 0.089
- Turnover: 69,724
- Payoff: $2.34 per 5% downside (ST=26) | Why: High liquidity and leverage make this ideal for directional bets on 200-day MA test

Aggressive bulls may consider a LI20250808C28 call ladder into a retest of $28.60 (50-day MA), while conservative investors should monitor the 200-day MA for trend confirmation.

Backtest Li Auto Stock Performance
The backtest of LI's performance after a -6% intraday plunge shows favorable results, with the 3-Day win rate at 52.55%, the 10-Day win rate at 52.55%, and the 30-Day win rate at 56.41%. This indicates that LI tends to recover and even surpass its previous levels in the short term following a significant drop. The maximum return during the backtest period was 9.52%, which occurred on day 59, suggesting that there is potential for substantial gains in the weeks following a steep intraday decline.

Rebuild Position Below $27.50 Amid Diverging Fundamentals
The 6.3% selloff creates a tactical entry point for long-term investors, but near-term volatility persists. With the stock trading 13% below its 52W high and 5% above 200-day support, the key catalyst will be August deliveries and Li i8 production ramp. Watch for a breakdown below $26.99 (30D support) or a retest of $28.60 (50-day MA) as directional signals. Tesla’s -1.64% move highlights sector caution, but Li Auto’s proprietary tech stack and 3,000 superchargers offer asymmetric upside. Hold cash for a break below $26.50 or accumulate puts at $25.00 for a 200-day MA trade.