Li Auto Outlook: Weak Technicals and Mixed Analyst Signals

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Li Auto (LI.O) faces a weak technical outlook, and despite a positive recent price rise of 2.11%, analysts appear divided and bearish overall.

News Highlights

Recent news includes global economic and policy shifts that could indirectly affect Li Auto’s operations:

• China urges halt to auto industry’s price wars: The call for an end to aggressive price competition in the auto sector could impact Li Auto’s profit margins and strategic positioning. This news is likely to weigh on investor sentiment in the medium term.
• Trump fast-tracks Utah uranium mine: While not directly related to Li Auto, this development reflects broader economic policy shifts under the Trump administration that could affect energy and commodity markets, potentially influencing EV supply chains.
• Trump’s tariff announcements: Tariff policies continue to dominate headlines and could disrupt global trade dynamics, indirectly affecting Li Auto’s access to international markets and raw materials.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

The recent analyst consensus for Li Auto is mixed: five institutions have rated it "Neutral" in the last 20 days, but none show strong conviction. The simple average rating score is 3.00, while the performance-weighted rating is a low 0.42—highlighting the poor historical performance of most analysts involved.

Historical performance of analysts includes:

• HSBC (Yuqian Ding): 100% historical winning rate, 1 prediction.
• Citigroup (Jeff Chung): 0% historical winning rate, 1 prediction.
• Piper Sandler (Alexander Potter): 0% historical winning rate, 2 predictions.

Despite a recent price rise of 2.11%, the market expectations remain pessimistic, and analyst ratings are largely at odds with the current price trend.

On the fundamental side, the model highlights several key factors:

• Revenue-MV value: 4.12% (internal diagnostic score: 2.00).
• Profit-MV value: 47.76% (internal diagnostic score: 0.48).
• Net income-Revenue value: -13.33% (internal diagnostic score: 3.00).
• Current assets turnover ratio value: 69.89% (internal diagnostic score: 1.00).
• Asset-MV value: 10.22% (internal diagnostic score: 3.00).
• Cash-MV value: 4.39% (internal diagnostic score: 1.00).

Money-Flow Trends

Despite a positive overall fund-flow score of 7.68 (good), the flow at the block level is bearish. The block inflow ratio is 0.4711, while the overall inflow ratio is 0.4787. This suggests that while retail and small investors are slightly more bullish (small inflow ratio: 0.4948), large and extra-large money flows are moving out.

This divergence implies that while retail traders may be optimistic, institutional and large investors remain cautious or bearish about Li Auto’s near-term prospects.

Key Technical Signals

Technically, Li Auto is in a weak position. The technical score is 1.76 (out of 10), and the overall trend is “weak” with a strong bearish bias.

• MACD Death Cross: Bias is bearish (internal diagnostic score: 1.31).
• MACD Golden Cross: Bias is also bearish (internal diagnostic score: 1.43).
• WR Oversold: Neutral bias (internal diagnostic score: 1.20).
• RSI Oversold: Neutral bias (internal diagnostic score: 3.10).

In the last 5 days, key signals appeared on multiple days:

• Dec 17: WR Oversold, MACD Death Cross, and RSI Oversold
• Dec 19: MACD Golden Cross

These signals point to a weak and fragmented momentum, with more bearish than bullish patterns emerging. The key technical insight is that bearish signals (4) heavily outnumber bullish ones (0), reinforcing the need for caution.

Conclusion

Actionable takeaway: Investors should consider avoiding Li Auto (LI.O) for now due to the weak technical indicators and lack of strong analyst support. While there are some positive signs in the price action, the internal diagnostic scores and fund-flow patterns indicate underlying uncertainty. Watch for any meaningful change in analyst sentiment or a strong rebound in technical strength before considering a position. For now, patience is key.