Li Auto Plummets 5.25% Amid Regulatory Storm and BEV Launch Jitters

Summary
• Li Auto (LI) trades at $24.455, down 5.25% intraday on Sept. 26, 2025
• Intraday range: $24.31–$27.10, signaling sharp volatility
• Beijing’s EV export clampdown and mixed reception to Li i6 launch dominate headlines

Li Auto’s stock faces a brutal selloff amid regulatory headwinds and strategic uncertainty. The launch of its $35K Li i6 BEV, coupled with Beijing’s tightening EV export policies, has triggered a 5.25% drop. With turnover surging to 13.5 million shares and a 52-week low of $19.10 looming, the stock’s near-term trajectory hinges on sector dynamics and investor sentiment.

Regulatory Clampdown and BEV Launch Jitters Trigger Sharp Selloff
The selloff stems from two critical catalysts: Beijing’s regulatory crackdown on EV exports and mixed market reception to Li Auto’s Li i6 launch. Recent news highlights Beijing’s tightening grip on EV exports, directly impacting Li Auto’s overseas ambitions. Simultaneously, the Li i6’s $35K price point—26.5% cheaper than the Li i8—has sparked skepticism about margin sustainability. Analysts at Zacks and Tiger Securities have downgraded the stock, citing weak Q2 earnings and a bearish Q3 outlook. The stock’s 5.25% drop reflects fears of regulatory overreach and pricing pressures in a hyper-competitive BEV market.

EV Sector Volatility Intensifies as Tesla Rallies 3.6%
While Li Auto tumbles, Tesla (TSLA) surges 3.6% intraday, underscoring divergent sector dynamics. Tesla’s gains stem from strong Model Y L demand in China and improved production efficiency. In contrast, Li Auto’s BEV strategy faces headwinds from Beijing’s export restrictions and pricing wars with BYD and NIO. The EV sector remains polarized: Tesla’s scale and innovation edge contrast sharply with Li Auto’s fragmented product lineup and regulatory risks.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Li Auto’s Volatility with Precision
• 200-day MA: $25.81 (above) • RSI: 67.65 (neutral) • MACD: 0.226 (bullish) • Bollinger Bands: $22.70–$26.91 • Support/Resistance: $23.75–$24.25

Li Auto’s technicals suggest a short-term bearish bias amid a 5.25% drop. Key levels to watch: the 200-day MA at $25.81 and the lower Bollinger Band at $22.70. The stock’s 67.65 RSI indicates moderate momentum, but the MACD’s 0.226 signal line suggests fading the rally. For options, focus on high-liquidity contracts with mid-to-high implied volatility and strong gamma exposure.

Top Option 1: LI20251003P23.5 (Put)
• Code: LI20251003P23.5 • Type: Put • Strike: $23.50 • Expiry: 2025-10-03 • IV: 58.18% • Leverage: 56.84% • Delta: -0.305 • Theta: -0.0049 • Gamma: 0.166 • Turnover: 84,045
• IV (high): Suggests strong bearish sentiment • Leverage (moderate): Amplifies downside potential • Delta (-0.305): Sensitive to price drops • Theta (-0.0049): Low time decay • Gamma (0.166): Responsive to price swings
• This put option offers a 56.84% leverage ratio and 58.18% IV, ideal for a 5% downside scenario. Projected payoff: $0.85 per share if Li Auto drops to $23.23 (5% below $24.455).

Top Option 2: LI20251003C26 (Call)
• Code: LI20251003C26 • Type: Call • Strike: $26.00 • Expiry: 2025-10-03 • IV: 64.32% • Leverage: 64.32% • Delta: 0.277 • Theta: -0.0822 • Gamma: 0.1437 • Turnover: 179,415
• IV (high): Reflects volatility premium • Leverage (high): 64.32% amplifies gains • Delta (0.277): Moderately sensitive to rallies • Theta (-0.0822): Aggressive time decay • Gamma (0.1437): Strong price sensitivity
• This call offers 64.32% leverage and 64.32% IV, suitable for a rebound above $26. Projected payoff: $0.00 if Li Auto drops 5%, but gains if it bounces above $26.50.

Hook: Aggressive bears should target LI20251003P23.5 for a 5% downside play, while bulls may consider LI20251003C26 for a rebound above $26.50.

Backtest Li Auto Stock Performance
Below is an interactive back-test report you can explore. Key takeaway: simply buying Li Auto after an intraday −5 % plunge (and selling the next day’s close, with no risk control) has not been attractive since 2022 – the sample produced a −20 % cumulative loss and a 66 % maximum draw-down. Consider adding risk-management or alternative exit logic if you wish to pursue this idea further.Feel free to click through the module for detailed statistics and the equity curve. If you’d like to test alternative exit rules or add stop-loss / take-profit constraints, just let me know!

Act Now: Li Auto’s Volatility Demands Tactical Precision
Li Auto’s 5.25% drop reflects regulatory and competitive pressures, but the stock remains range-bound near its 52-week low. Immediate support at $24.31 and resistance at $25.81 will dictate near-term direction. Investors should monitor Beijing’s EV export policies and Li i6’s delivery performance. Tesla’s 3.6% rally highlights sector divergence, but Li Auto’s path is murkier. Watch for a breakdown below $24.31 or a rebound above $25.81 to trigger next moves.