Li Auto Jumps 6.9% On Heavy Volume To Extend 3-Day Rally To 9.2%

Li Auto closed at $26.17 on September 15, 2025, marking a 6.90% single-day gain and completing a three-day cumulative advance of 9.22%. This breakout occurred on elevated volume of 10.16 million shares, suggesting conviction behind the upward move. The technical landscape exhibits several noteworthy confluences and divergences, analyzed through the following frameworks:
Candlestick Theory
The most recent session formed a robust bullish candle breaking above the $25.50-$26.00 consolidation zone that had capped advances since late July. This confirms the $23.31 low (September 5) as a significant higher low, establishing support. Immediate resistance sits at the year-to-date high of $31.10 (July 29), while the $24.48-$24.60 gap from September 12 creates a minor support zone. The three-white-soldier pattern over consecutive sessions indicates sustained buying pressure.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA (~$25.80) crossed bullishly above the 200-day MA (~$24.70) in early September, forming a "golden cross" that typically signals long-term momentum shifts. Price is now trading above all three key moving averages (50/100/200-day), with the 50-day providing dynamic support during August pullbacks. The ascending 100-day MA (~$25.20) reinforces the bullish intermediate trend structure.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12,26,9) shows strengthening bullish momentum, with the histogram expanding above the zero line after a bullish crossover in late August. KDJ (9,3,3) entered overbought territory (K:84, D:79, J:94) on September 15, but remains ascending without bearish divergence. This alignment suggests near-term continuation potential despite stretched conditions, though retracement risk increases if the KDJ curve flattens.
Bollinger Bands
The September 15 breakout occurred as Bollinger Bands (20-day, 2σ) expanded sharply from a prolonged contraction phase, indicating a volatility expansion confirming the directional move. Price closed near the upper band ($26.60), demonstrating strength. Historically, such expansions following squeeze periods (like the August range) have yielded 8-12% directional moves in LI, suggesting $28.00-$29.00 as a technical target.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume surged 123% above the 20-day average during the breakout, validating price advancement. The three-day rally saw progressively increasing volume, reflecting accumulation. This contrasts sharply with the August downswings, which occurred on below-average volume. The volume-weighted average price (VWAP) since the September 8 low sits at $24.90, now acting as support.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (63.5) shows room for further upside before overbought territory (>70), mitigating immediate reversal concerns. A bearish divergence did materialize in late July when RSI peaked at 72 while prices made higher highs, foreshadowing the August correction. The current setup lacks such negative divergence, supporting continuation potential.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the dominant swing low ($19.05 on September 16, 2024) and high ($31.10 on July 29, 2025) reveals critical levels. The recent rally precisely respected the 61.8% retracement ($24.00) before accelerating upward. The 50% level ($25.10) now aligns with the 100-day MA to form strong support, while the 38.2% retracement ($26.60) corresponds with September 15's high. A sustained break above $26.60 would open a path toward the 23.6% level ($28.50).
Confluence & Divergence Observations
Strong confluence exists between Fibonacci resistance ($26.60), Bollinger Band upper limits, and psychological resistance near $27.00. Multiple indicators agree on support at $25.10-25.20 (50% Fibonacci + 100-day MA + VWAP anchor). The primary divergence appears in volume-adjusted momentum: the Accumulation/Distribution Line has not yet confirmed the price high, suggesting some distribution at recent levels. This warrants monitoring for bearish reversal patterns near $26.60-$27.00 resistance. Probabilistically, the weight of evidence suggests bullish continuation toward $28.50-29.00 barring breakdowns below $25.10 support.