Li Auto Jumps 3.79% As Technicals Signal Potential Reversal

Candlestick Theory
Li Auto exhibited a decisive bullish candle on the most recent trading day (2025-08-13), closing at $24.90 (+3.79%) with a high of $24.95 and low of $24.53. This pattern emerged after a hammer-like formation on 2025-08-12 (low: $23.77), suggesting potential reversal confirmation. Immediate resistance is observed at $25.50-$25.59 (August 4-5 highs), followed by the psychological $26.00 level. Key support rests at $23.77 (August 12 low), coinciding with the June 2025 consolidation zone. The breach of $24.19 resistance (August 12 high) on expanding volume strengthens short-term bullish bias.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day SMA (~$26.20) and 100-day SMA (~$26.80) hover above the current price ($24.90), indicating persistent intermediate-term resistance. Crucially, the 200-day SMA (~$24.50) provided dynamic support during the August 12 sell-off. Current trading below the 50/100-day SMAs signals bearish intermediate momentum, though the 200-day SMA's proximity suggests foundational support. A golden cross formation (50-day crossing above 200-day) in late May 2025 now acts as a distant support anchor, but death cross potential (50-day crossing below 100-day) remains if bearish pressure persists.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12,26,9) shows a deepening negative histogram, with the signal line entrenched below zero – reflecting sustained bearish momentum. However, the histogram’s deceleration suggests weakening downside pressure. The KDJ oscillator presents a bullish divergence: While price established lower lows in early August, the %K line (currently 35) formed higher lows. This occurs near oversold territory (%K <30 on August 12), suggesting nascent reversal momentum. MACD-KDJ divergence implies potential trend exhaustion near support zones.
Bollinger Bands
Price rebounded from the lower Bollinger Band ($23.50) on August 12, indicating oversold conditions. Bandwidth has contracted 18% over the past week (20-period, 2σ), signaling reduced volatility and impending directional resolution. The current price testing the middle band ($24.70) suggests equilibrium. A sustained move above $24.95 (recent high) could trigger mean-reversion toward the upper band ($25.60). Band contraction near support reinforces bullish reversal prospects.
Volume-Price Relationship
Recent decline saw volume expansion on August 6 (6.29M shares at -5.43%), confirming distribution. However, the August 13 rally occurred on 5.53M shares – 36% above the 20-day average – validating accumulation. This volume surge during an upswing, following reduced volume during lateral consolidation (August 7-8), signals institutional participation in the rebound. Negative volume divergence occurred during July’s peak (declining volume as prices hit $31.10), foreshadowing the current correction.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI rebounded sharply from oversold territory (28.6 on August 12) to 42.3 currently. This exit from oversold aligns with bullish volume confirmation and KDJ divergence. While RSI remains below the neutral 50 level, its steep ascent suggests accelerating buying momentum. Historical reactions near 30 RSI (April 2025, August 2025) triggered 15%+ rallies, though false signals occurred during persistent downtrends. The current RSI trajectory implies bearish exhaustion near structural support.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels between the swing high of $31.10 (July 29) and swing low of $23.77 (August 12), key retracement levels emerge: 23.6% ($24.94), 38.2% ($25.57), and 50% ($26.43). The August 13 close precisely tested the 23.6% level ($24.94), establishing it as immediate resistance. This confluence with Bollinger middle band ($24.70) creates a critical pivot zone. A decisive break above $24.95 may propel price toward the 38.2% level ($25.57), which aligns with the 100-day SMA. The 50% retracement ($26.43) converges with the psychologically significant $26.50 resistance and June distribution zone.
Concluding Synthesis
Multiple technical factors suggest Li Auto is at a pivotal juncture. Confluence between Bollinger support, Fibonacci 0% level ($23.77), and oversold RSI/KDJ readings prompted the recent rebound. Bullish confirmation stems from volume expansion on the up day and RSI divergence. However, sustained recovery requires overcoming confluent resistance at $24.94-25.00 (23.6% Fib, recent high, and psychological barrier). The 50/100-day SMA cluster at $26.20-26.80 presents formidable intermediate resistance. Divergence persists between short-term bullish indicators (RSI, KDJ) and bearish MACD/moving average alignments. Probabilistically, a relief rally toward $25.50-26.00 appears favored near-term, but failure to hold $24.00 could trigger retest of $23.00 support. Traders should monitor volume confirmation at Fib levels for trend validation.