Li Auto Extends Rally With 6.67% Gain Marking Ninth Consecutive Advance

Li Auto (LI) demonstrated robust bullish momentum in the latest session, surging 6.67% to close at $31.36. This marks the ninth consecutive day of gains, cumulating a 20.87% advance over this period.
Candlestick Theory
The nine consecutive white candles reflect persistent buying pressure, with the most recent long-bodied candle closing near its high ($31.36 vs. intraday high of $31.78). This pattern suggests strong conviction. Immediate resistance is observed at $31.78 (recent high), followed by the year-to-date peak of $33.12. Support emerges near $29.40–$29.50 (previous resistance pivot and gap-fill zone from mid-June) and stronger support at $26.74–$27.20 (consolidation base preceding the rally).
Moving Average Theory
The price trades decisively above all key moving averages (50-day ≈ $26.80, 100-day ≈ $25.30, 200-day ≈ $23.90), confirming a bullish long-term trend. The 50-day MA recently crossed above the 100-day and 200-day MAs, forming a "Golden Cross" that reinforces upward momentum. This alignment suggests robust trend strength, though a near-term pullback toward the rising 50-day MA remains plausible after the extended rally.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12,26,9) shows a widening positive histogram, signaling accelerating upside momentum. KDJ (9,3,3) is deeply overbought, with the %K and %D lines above 90. While this reflects strong short-term bullishness, it also implies elevated vulnerability to profit-taking. Confluence exists between MACD’s continued bullish momentum and KDJ’s overbought warning, suggesting any pullback could be a buying opportunity within the larger uptrend.
Bollinger Bands
Price is hugging the upper band ($31.20–$31.50), indicating overextended bullish sentiment. The bands expanded significantly during the rally, reflecting rising volatility. A contraction in the bands or a price retracement toward the 20-day SMA (mid-band ≈ $28.50) may occur to alleviate overbought conditions. Sustained trading above the upper band is statistically uncommon, hinting at consolidation ahead.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume surged during key up-days (e.g., July 7: 6.7M shares; July 11: 11.0M shares), validating breakout momentum. However, the latest 6.67% gain occurred on reduced volume (9.2M vs. July 11’s 11.0M), suggesting fatigue. This divergence may foreshadow consolidation, though the overall volume profile remains supportive of the uptrend.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI is estimated at 76, deep in overbought territory (>70). Historically, RSI peaks above 75 have preceded brief corrections (e.g., late February 2025 rally climax). While this warns of short-term overheating, persistently high RSI can accompany strong trends. Traders should monitor for bearish divergence on any new highs.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the major swing low at $17.44 (August 28, 2024) and high at $33.12 (February 26, 2025), key retracement levels are $27.25 (23.6%), $25.28 (38.2%), and $23.43 (61.8%). The current rally surpassed the 23.6% level decisively, turning it into support. For the recent upswing from $19.79 (April 8 low), the 38.2% retracement at $27.20 aligns with the 50-day MA and volume gap, offering a high-probability buy zone during pullbacks.
Confluence Notes
Bullish alignment is evident with price above all key MAs, MACD momentum, and volume-supported breakouts. However, overbought signals (RSI, KDJ, Bollinger) and the nine-day rally warrant caution. The $27.20–$28.50 zone (convergence of 50-day MA, 38.2% Fibonacci, and mid-Bollinger Band) represents critical support where buyers may reemerge. A decisive close above $33.12 is needed to confirm resumption of the long-term uptrend. Bearish divergence remains absent, though deteriorating volume and stretched oscillators suggest consolidation is probable before further upside.