Li Auto Extends Rally With 10.43% Gain Over Six Sessions As Technicals Flash Bullish Signals

Li Auto (LI) rose 3.58% for a sixth consecutive session, bringing its cumulative gain over this period to 10.43%, as the stock closed at $28.65 on July 14, 2025. The technical landscape reveals several key dynamics converging at current levels.
Candlestick Theory
The six consecutive bullish candles demonstrate strong upward momentum, with the latest session forming a green body closing near the high ($28.65 vs. high of $28.845). This pattern suggests persistent buying pressure. Immediate resistance is established at the recent swing high of $29.76 (June 11), while support emerges at $27.55 (July 11 low) and the psychological $25.81 level (July 3 trough), aligning with a late-June gap-up zone.
Moving Average Theory
The current price ($28.65) trades above all key moving averages, confirming a bullish structure. The 50-day MA (approximated at $27.20) has recently crossed above the 100-day MA (~$27.50), a bullish signal known as a "golden cross." The 200-day MA (~$24.50) slopes upward, reinforcing the longer-term uptrend. The sequence remains price > 50MA > 100MA > 200MA, indicating robust intermediate-term strength.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD shows a bullish crossover with the histogram in positive territory, confirming upward momentum acceleration from the July 3 low. However, the KDJ oscillator registers an overbought signal, with the %K line at 93.6 (above 80) based on the 9-day stochastic calculation. This divergence suggests near-term exhaustion risk despite the bullish MACD alignment.
Bollinger Bands
Price trades near the upper Bollinger Band ($28.85), while the 20-day SMA ($27.50) provides dynamic support. Band expansion from July 7 onward reflects increasing volatility during the rally. The proximity to the upper band may cap immediate upside, but sustained trading above the 20-day SMA favors bulls.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume validation is mixed: The July 7 and July 11 surges saw significant volume expansion (6.7M and 11.0M shares), supporting breakout credibility. However, the latest rally leg (July 14) registered reduced volume (5.0M shares), indicating fading participation at current resistance levels and warranting caution.
Relative Strength Index
The 14-day RSI reads 56.48—firmly neutral—with no extreme overbought signal. This contrasts with the overbought KDJ reading, creating a divergence. Historically, LI’s RSI has peaked above 70 during strong rallies (e.g., February 2025), suggesting room for further upside if momentum persists.
Fibonacci Retracement
From the swing high ($33.12 on February 26) to the swing low ($25.81 on July 3), the 38.2% retracement coincides exactly with current prices ($28.60), creating a technical hurdle. Confluence exists here as the recent high ($28.85) tested this resistance. A decisive break above targets the 50% level ($29.47), while failure may see retreat toward the 23.6% support ($27.54).
Confluence and Divergence Observations
Confluence of resistance appears at $28.60–28.85, combining the Fibonacci 38.2% level, upper Bollinger Band, and YTD high volume node. Bullish consensus emerges from moving average alignment and MACD confirmation, yet divergences exist: KDJ signals overbought conditions while RSI remains neutral, and fading volume challenges breakout sustainability. This mixed technical canvas suggests a potential consolidation phase near $28.60 before directional resolution. Traders should monitor volume resurgence for breakout confirmation or KDJ reversal for pullback signals.