Leveraged Longs in ETH and BTC: Whale Conviction as a Market Signal

In the volatile world of cryptocurrency, whale activity often serves as a barometer for institutional sentiment. Recent movements in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) highlight a growing alignment between large-scale investors and the broader market's optimism. By dissecting whale positioning, derivatives activity, and on-chain data, we can identify undervaluation and upside potential in a landscape still defined by uncertainty.

Whale Conviction: HyperUnit's $55M Bet on BTC and ETH

A prominent whale known as HyperUnit has opened $55 million in leveraged long positions across Bitcoin and Ethereum, with $37 million allocated to BTC and $18 million to ETH according to reports. This move is particularly noteworthy given HyperUnit's track record: the entity accumulated $850 million in Bitcoin during the 2018 bear market, which later ballooned to $10 billion in value. More recently, HyperUnit capitalized on the U.S.-China tariff-driven market crash in October 2025, securing $200 million in profits while also executing two profitable short positions. Such strategic agility underscores a sophisticated understanding of macroeconomic triggers and market timing.

The whale's current long positions suggest a conviction that both BTC and ETH are undervalued relative to their long-term trajectories. For Bitcoin, this aligns with the broader narrative of "digital gold" adoption, while Ethereum's bet appears tied to improving layer-2 scalability and declining gas fees-a dynamic Coinbase Institutional recently flagged as a catalyst for ETH's growth.

Institutional Derivatives Activity: A Cautious Bull Case

Coinbase Institutional's Q4 2025 report, Charting Crypto: Navigating Uncertainty, paints a cautiously optimistic picture for institutional investors. The firm highlights resilient liquidity conditions and a strengthening macroeconomic backdrop, including robust stablecoin supply and ETF infrastructure. These developments are critical for traditional allocators, who increasingly view crypto as a legitimate asset class.

Notably, Bitcoin and Ethereum derivatives activity has surged, with Bitcoin DATs (digital-asset treasuries) now holding 3.5% of the circulating supply and ETH-focused DATs controlling 3.7% according to Coinbase Institutional. This institutional accumulation, coupled with the absence of large-scale selling from long-term holders, signals a shift from speculative trading to strategic portfolio management. As Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley observed, many large Bitcoin holders are "not planning to sell their entire holdings," instead prioritizing long-term value retention according to reports.

On-Chain Data: A Tale of Patience and Confidence

On-chain metrics reinforce the narrative of growing confidence. Between October 2 and November 2, 405,000 Bitcoin were offloaded by long-term holders according to reports. However, this activity appears to represent routine portfolio rebalancing rather than panic selling. Santiment data further supports this view, showing that 208,980 fewer Bitcoin are now on exchanges compared to six months ago according to data. This reduction in circulating supply-combined with the absence of large sell orders-creates a structural bullish case, as it reduces downward pressure on price.

For Ethereum, the picture is similarly encouraging. Layer-2 innovations and declining fees are attracting retail and institutional users alike, while derivatives activity suggests a growing appetite for leveraged exposure. The interplay between these factors positions ETH as a high-conviction play for investors seeking asymmetric upside in a volatile market.

Risks and the Road Ahead

Despite these positives, risks remain. Coinbase Institutional warns of a potential November liquidity fade and the impact of missing U.S. data due to a government shutdown according to reports. Additionally, while whale positioning is a strong signal, it is not infallible-HyperUnit's recent short positions demonstrate that even seasoned actors hedge against uncertainty.

Actionable Insights for Retail Investors

For retail investors, the key takeaway is to align with the structural trends identified by whale activity and institutional derivatives flows. Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative and Ethereum's scalability-driven growth offer complementary opportunities. Entry points should prioritize dips in derivatives volatility and confirmatory on-chain signals, such as reduced exchange balances and increased DAT holdings.

In a market where timing is everything, the current alignment of whale conviction, institutional infrastructure, and macroeconomic tailwinds suggests that both BTC and ETH are poised for a re-rating. As always, diversification and risk management remain paramount, but the data makes a compelling case for a bullish tilt in Q4 2025.