Lennox (LII) shares gained 2.97% to close at 578.05 in the latest session, completing a three-day advance totaling 6.34%. This upward momentum provides the context for our technical assessment, which integrates seven analytical frameworks to evaluate potential future price direction.
Candlestick Theory The recent session formed a robust bullish candle with a high of 580.575 and low of 565.925, closing near the session peak. This follows a hammer pattern on September 3 (low of 537) and a subsequent gap up, suggesting buyers are dominating near the 537 support zone. Resistance is evident at 580-581, aligning with the August 29 swing high, while the July low near 502 establishes a major support floor.
Moving Average Theory Lennox currently trades below its 200-day moving average (~600) but has recently reclaimed the 50-day MA (~570). The 100-day MA (~580) is being tested as resistance. The short-term moving averages (50/100-day) are converging, suggesting potential trend transition. A sustained break above 581 would confirm a bullish golden cross formation between shorter-term averages.
MACD & KDJ Indicators The MACD histogram has turned positive after a bullish crossover near the zero line, signaling strengthening momentum. KDJ shows the %K line (76) crossed above %D (71) in neutral territory, avoiding overbought conditions. Both oscillators support continuation of the current uptrend, though proximity to overbought KDJ levels suggests near-term consolidation risk.
Bollinger Bands Price has rebounded from the lower
Band (545) to test the middle band (577), with bandwidth contracting by 15% over the past month. The squeeze implies a volatility expansion opportunity. A close above the middle band would target the upper band near 610, while failure to hold 570 might reactivate the lower band near 550.
Volume-Price Relationship Volume expanded by 15% during the three-day rally, confirming buyer conviction. Notable distribution occurred on August 20 (747k shares, -3.98%) and July 23 (1.16M shares, +6.59%), establishing key pivot points. The current volume profile supports bullish momentum, though resistance tests require continued volume confirmation.
Relative Strength Index (RSI) The 14-day RSI reading of 58 reflects improving momentum without overbought concerns. Prior oversold conditions below 30 occurred at the early September low (537), which catalyzed the current rebound. Bullish divergence was observed in late August as price made lower lows while RSI formed higher lows, foreshadowing this recovery.
Fibonacci Retracement Using the June low (537.47) and July peak (670), key retracement levels emerge: 23.6% (591), 38.2% (608), and 50% (604). The recent rally stalled at the 23.6% resistance. Confluence exists at 590-600 where the 38.2% Fib, 200-day MA, and psychological resistance converge, making this zone critical for bullish continuation. The 620-625 area marks the next significant barrier.
Confluence and Divergence Strong confluence exists at 590-600 where Fibonacci resistance, the 200-day MA, and volume-weighted average price converge. Bullish consensus appears between MACD, KDJ, volume, and RSI, though Bollinger Band resistance at 580 currently limits upside. A notable bullish divergence between price and RSI in late August provided an early reversal signal that materialized in the current rally. The absence of bearish divergences suggests current momentum may extend, though profit-taking near 600 resistance appears probable given the technical density in this zone.
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