Lennox (LII) Plunges 8.65% on Q3 Miss and Guidance Cut – What’s Next for the HVAC Giant?

Summary
• Lennox (LII) trades at $501.5, down 8.65% from previous close of $548.99
• Intraday range: $485.47–$568.99, with 1295K shares traded
• Q3 revenue fell 4.8% YoY to $1.43B, missing estimates by 4.3%
• Full-year EPS guidance cut to $23 midpoint, a 3.2% decline

Lennox’s sharp intraday selloff reflects a Q3 earnings report that missed revenue expectations and revised full-year guidance lower. The stock’s 8.65% drop underscores investor concerns over organic demand weakness and margin pressures. With the stock trading near its 52-week low of $485.47, the move highlights a critical inflection point for the HVAC leader.

Q3 Revenue Miss and Guidance Cut Spur Sharp Selloff
Lennox’s Q3 results triggered a selloff as the company reported a 4.8% year-on-year revenue decline to $1.43 billion, missing estimates by 4.3%. Organic revenue fell 5% YoY, far below the 4.2% five-year growth trend. Management cut full-year Adjusted EPS guidance to $23, a 3.2% reduction, citing refrigerant transition challenges and macroeconomic headwinds. The stock’s 8.65% drop reflects investor skepticism about near-term demand recovery and margin sustainability, despite a 1.5% operating margin expansion in Q3.

Building Products Sector Mixed as Johnson Controls (JCI) Drags
Bearish Options Play and Technical Levels to Watch
• 200-day MA: $579.14 (above), 30-day MA: $537.71 (below)
• RSI: 55.35 (neutral), MACD: -5.04 (bearish), Bollinger Bands: $509.06–$557.60
• Kline pattern: Short-term bullish, long-term bearish
• Support/Resistance: 30D $533.55–$534.58, 200D $549.88–$553.05
The technical setup suggests a bearish bias in the near term, with key support at $509.06 (lower Bollinger Band) and resistance at $534.58 (30D support). The 200-day MA at $579.14 remains a critical long-term hurdle. For options, the LII20251121P480 put contract stands out with 22.09% implied volatility, 95.38% leverage, and a 24.29% price change ratio. A 5% downside to $476.43 would yield a put payoff of $3.57 per contract. The LII20251121C500 call, though low-IV (0.29%), offers 99,578% leverage but minimal delta (0.03), making it unsuitable for directional bets. Aggressive bears should prioritize the LII20251121P480 for a 5% downside scenario, while bulls may wait for a rebound above $534.58 before initiating longs.

Backtest Lennox Stock Performance
I have extracted Lennox International’s (LII) full-history daily OHLC data from 2022-01-03 through 2025-10-22 and scanned every session for the event you specified:• Event rule used: day’s LOW ≤ 0.91 × prior-day CLOSE (i.e., ≥ 9 % intraday plunge). • Result: Only one qualifying date – 2025-10-22 (low = $485.47 vs. 21-Oct close = $548.99, –11.6 % intraday).Because there is just a single event and no subsequent trading days yet available, the event-back-test engine could not compute post-event statistics (its variance calculation requires at least two observations and at least one full day of returns after every event). This triggered the “division by zero” error you saw.How we can proceed:1. Keep the 9 % threshold but extend the look-back window further (e.g., back to 2010) to capture more events.2. Relax the threshold slightly (e.g., –8 % or –7 %) to increase the event count within 2022-present.3. Wait until additional trading sessions accumulate after 2025-10-22 so that post-event return paths can be measured.4. If you only need a narrative analysis of the single 2025-10-22 plunge (rather than statistical back-test metrics), I can summarize price behaviour around that date manually.Let me know which direction you’d like to take, and I’ll run the appropriate analysis (or summarise the single event) for you.

Critical Support Breakdown Looms – Act Now or Miss the Move
Lennox’s 8.65% drop signals a potential breakdown below key support levels, with the 52-week low at $485.47 now in play. The stock’s technicals and earnings-driven bearishness suggest further downside unless it reclaims $534.58. Meanwhile, sector leader Johnson Controls (JCI) fell 2.53%, amplifying sector-wide concerns. Investors should monitor the LII20251121P480 put for a bearish trade or watch for a rebound above $534.58 to re-enter longs. If $509.06 breaks, the stock could test $485.47, making this a pivotal week for LII.