Lennar (LEN) Shares Fall 6.26% on Bearish Technical Signals, Approaching Critical $110.02 Support Level

Lennar (LEN) has experienced a sharp decline, falling 4.54% in the most recent session and dropping 6.26% over two consecutive trading days. This downward momentum warrants a detailed technical assessment across multiple frameworks to evaluate trend strength, potential reversals, and key levels of interest.
Candlestick Theory
The recent price action reveals a bearish bias, with consecutive lower highs and lower lows forming a descending channel. A key support level emerges near $110.02 (the low from 2025-12-17), which coincides with a prior intraday trough. Resistance is clustered between $116.70 and $120.82, reflecting recent failed attempts to rebound. A bearish engulfing pattern is evident in the two-day decline, suggesting continued pressure unless the price retests the $110.02 level with bullish reversal confirmation.
Moving Average Theory
Short-term momentum is bearish, with the 50-day MA (approximately $125–$130) and 100-day MA (around $120–$125) both significantly above current levels, indicating a bearish crossover. The 200-day MA (likely $120–$125) acts as a critical psychological threshold; a break below this could accelerate the downtrend. Confluence between the 50/100-day MAs and Fibonacci retracement levels at ~$115–$117 suggests a high-probability target for further declines.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram shows bearish divergence, with the line crossing below the signal line as the price declines, reinforcing the downtrend. The KDJ (Stochastic) oscillator is in oversold territory (<30), but this may indicate exhaustion rather than a reversal unless accompanied by a bullish crossover in the K-D lines. Divergence between the MACD and KDJ suggests conflicting signals, warranting caution in interpreting overbought/oversold conditions.

Bollinger Bands
Volatility has expanded recently, with the price testing the lower Bollinger Band ($110.02–$116.54). A break below the band could trigger a volatility expansion phase. However, the bands’ width suggests the current range is stretched, increasing the probability of a reversion toward the 20-day moving average (~$115–$117).
Volume-Price Relationship
Trading volume has surged during the recent decline, validating the bearish move. The highest volume occurred on 2025-12-17 ($1.16B) and 2025-12-04 ($948M), aligning with key breakdowns. However, volume has not shown a clear increase on recent sessions, suggesting waning conviction in the downtrend and a potential near-term equilibrium.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI is near oversold territory (<30), but this does not necessarily signal a reversal. Historical context reveals RSI has remained depressed during prior bearish phases (e.g., 2025-11–2025-12), indicating a prolonged downtrend may persist. A sustained close above $117.57 (the 2025-12-03 high) could trigger a RSI rebound, but this remains contingent on bullish volume confirmation.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci levels to the 2025-11-25 ($131.6) to 2025-12-17 ($112.23) decline, key support levels are identified at 61.8% ($116.00) and 78.6% ($113.00). The current price is approaching the 78.6% level, which could either act as a short-term floor or trigger a breakdown into the 88.6% zone (~$109.00).

The analysis highlights strong confluence between Fibonacci retracement levels and Bollinger Bands at ~$113–$115, suggesting a high-probability target for near-term support. Divergences between the MACD and KDJ indicators caution against overreliance on oversold conditions, while expanding volume during breakdowns validates the bearish bias. A break below $110.02 would likely trigger a retest of the 2025-06–2025-08 range (~$105–$108), where prior consolidation may offer a final defense before a deeper correction.