LendingTree Skyrockets 22.97%—Can Fintech’s Phoenix Rise From the Ashes?

Summary
• LendingTree (TREE) surges 22.97% intraday, trading at $50.48 after a $44.72 open
• Preliminary Q2 revenue hits $250M, surpassing estimates by $6M
• Full-year guidance raised to $1.05B sales and $126M EBITDA

After a seismic intraday rally, LendingTree has become the focal point of a fintech sector battling regulatory headwinds and margin pressures. The stock’s 22.97% surge—its highest intra-day gain in years—has ignited debates about sector resilience and the sustainability of this momentum. With a 52-week high of $62.49 looming and a 200-day moving average at $43.75, the technical and fundamental catalysts demand urgent scrutiny.

Q2 Earnings Catalyst Sparks Fintech Optimism
LendingTree’s 22.97% surge stems from preliminary Q2 results that far exceeded expectations. Revenue of $250 million and adjusted EBITDA of $31.8 million—both above forecasts—highlight robust operating leverage and cost discipline. The company’s revised $1.05 billion sales guidance and $126 million EBITDA target have recalibrated market expectations. Analysts now cite a 35% upside potential from the current $50.48 price, with median price targets at $62. This surge reflects renewed confidence in fintech’s ability to deliver scalable, efficient growth amid a challenging macro environment.

Fintech Sector Faces Mixed Signals as TREE Outperforms
While LendingTree’s 22% rally is exceptional, the broader fintech sector remains under pressure. PayPal (PYPL), the sector’s leading name, rose 1.77% on the day—a modest gain compared to TREE’s outperformance. This divergence underscores LendingTree’s unique value proposition: its efficient growth model and strong EBITDA margins position it as a rare winner in a sector grappling with regulatory headwinds and margin compression. However, JPMorgan’s recent data-access fees and AI-driven fintech competition suggest systemic challenges remain, making LendingTree’s momentum a test case for sector resilience.

Capitalizing on Fintech’s Bull Run: ETFs and Options Playbook
• MACD: 0.69 (bullish divergence), Signal Line: 0.428, Histogram: 0.262 (momentum acceleration)
• RSI: 60.88 (neutral to overbought), Bollinger Bands: Upper at 41.07, Middle at 38.36, Lower at 35.66 (price above 52W low)
• 200-Day MA: 43.75 (price at 50.48, above long-term average)

LendingTree’s technicals suggest a short-term bullish trend amid long-term bearish pressure. Key resistance lies at the 52W high of $62.49, while support is near the 200-day MA at $43.75. With RSI edging into overbought territory and MACD divergence intact, traders should monitor for a breakout above $52.66 (5% upside from $50.48).

Top Options Picks:
• TREE20250815C50 (Call, $50 strike, Aug 15):
- IV: 80.45% (moderate volatility), Leverage: 11.98% (high), Delta: 0.55 (moderate directional bias), Theta: -0.132 (aggressive time decay), Gamma: 0.039 (sensitive to price swings), Turnover: 77,442 (liquid)
- Payoff (5% upside): $2.66 (max(0, 52.66 - 50)). This contract offers high leverage and liquidity, ideal for capturing a potential breakout.
• TREE20250815C55 (Call, $55 strike, Aug 15):
- IV: 84.75% (elevated), Leverage: 20.08% (very high), Delta: 0.38 (modest directional bias), Theta: -0.1197 (strong time decay), Gamma: 0.036 (responsive to price moves), Turnover: 34,858 (sufficient liquidity)
- Payoff (5% upside): $0.00 (strike above projected price). While risky, this contract rewards aggressive bulls with high leverage if the rally extends beyond $55.

Trading Insight: Position the TREE20250815C50 as a core bet for a sustained move above $52.66. For risk-tolerant traders, the TREE20250815C55 offers outsized leverage if the stock surges past $55. Both contracts benefit from high gamma and moderate delta, amplifying returns in a bullish scenario.

Aggressive bulls may consider TREE20250815C50 into a bounce above $52.66.

Backtest LendingTree Stock Performance
The backtest of TREE's performance after a 23% intraday surge shows mixed results. While the 3-day win rate is 64.71%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term, the 10-day win rate drops to 58.57% and the 30-day win rate increases to 67.14%. The maximum return during the backtest period was 26.24%, which occurred on day 55, indicating that while there is potential for gains, there is also a significant amount of time where the returns are negative or relatively low.

Act Now: Target Breakout Above $52.66
LendingTree’s 22.97% surge signals a turning point in fintech’s narrative, driven by its efficient growth model and upgraded guidance. However, the stock’s long-term bearish trend—evidenced by the 200-day MA at $43.75—remains a critical watchpoint. Immediate action: Target a breakout above $52.66 to confirm the rally’s durability. Conversely, a pullback to the 200-day MA could reignite bearish momentum. With PayPal (PYPL) up 1.77%, the sector’s broader shift toward efficiency-driven growth may fuel follow-through. Act now: Buy the TREE20250815C50 for a bullish breakout play, and short-term traders should watch the $52.66 level as a key inflection point.