LayerZero/Bitcoin (ZROBTC) Market Overview – 2025-10-17

• LayerZero/Bitcoin (ZROBTC) declined 1.8% over the past 24 hours, closing near key support.
• Price tested 1.592e-05 multiple times, suggesting short-term consolidation.
• RSI reached oversold territory, hinting at potential near-term bounce.
• Volume surged post-19:00 ET, but failed to confirm bullish momentum.
• Bollinger Bands narrowed mid-session before expanding, signaling increased volatility.

LayerZero/Bitcoin (ZROBTC) opened at 1.628e-05 on 2025-10-16 at 12:00 ET and closed at 1.596e-05 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-17. The 24-hour high was 1.653e-05, while the low was 1.561e-05. Total volume for the period was 101,169.74 ZRO, with a notional turnover of $1.596 (at closing price). The pair spent most of the session below the 20-period moving average, suggesting bearish bias.

Price formed several bearish patterns, including a Bearish Engulfing pattern at 1.626e-05 and a Shooting Star at 1.63e-05, reinforcing downward pressure. A Bullish Harami at 1.613e-05 offered limited resistance, but failed to halt the decline. Notable support levels appeared near 1.592e-05 and 1.581e-05, where price found temporary relief multiple times. The 20-period moving average currently sits at 1.604e-05, while the 50-period line is at 1.611e-05, both indicating bearish alignment.

Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped into oversold territory below 30, suggesting the pair may consolidate or reverse in the near term. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remained in negative territory, with a bearish crossover observed around 19:00 ET. MACD histogram showed gradual contraction, indicating weakening bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands contracted early in the session before widening post-20:00 ET, signaling increased volatility and a potential turning point in sentiment.

Volume spiked during key price declines but did not confirm strong bearish conviction, particularly after 21:00 ET. The divergence between falling prices and stabilizing volume suggests a potential near-term bottom. Fibonacci retracement levels of 1.602e-05 (61.8%) and 1.589e-05 (38.2%) became critical in the final hours of the session. Price may test the 1.574e-05 level next if the trend continues, though a rebound is possible from current oversold conditions.

ZROBTC may consolidate near 1.592e-05 in the short term, with a potential bounce into the 1.60–1.61e-05 range. A break below 1.574e-05 could trigger a sharper decline, but oversold RSI conditions hint at limited downside in the immediate term. Investors should remain cautious of volume divergence and watch for a bearish rejection at 1.596e-05.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest could focus on identifying Bearish Engulfing patterns and testing a 3-day short-side strategy from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-17. Given the recent Bearish Engulfing at 1.626e-05 and the subsequent price decline, a short entry on confirmation of the pattern with a stop-loss placed above 1.63e-05 could be evaluated. The strategy would aim to capture the 1.5–2% drops seen in similar setups over the past year. Performance metrics such as win rate, average return, and risk-reward ratio would help determine its robustness.