Latest odds from Polymarket for the 2028 U.S. presidential election: JD Vance – 28%, Gavin Newsom – 14%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez – 11%, Pete Buttigieg – 9%, Marco Rubio – 6%

Latest odds from Polymarket for the 2028 U.S. presidential election: JD Vance – 28%, Gavin Newsom – 14%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez – 11%, Pete Buttigieg – 9%, Marco Rubio – 6%

As the 2028 U.S. presidential election approaches, prediction markets are providing early insights into the potential candidates and their chances of winning. According to the latest odds from Polymarket, Vice President JD Vance is the early frontrunner, with a 28% probability of securing the Republican nomination. This is followed by California Governor Gavin Newsom at 14%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 11%, and Pete Buttigieg at 9% [5].

Vance's rise to the top is attributed to his recent vice-presidential role and his growing popularity among conservative voters. Newsom's odds reflect his increasing media presence and cross-ideological reach, while Ocasio-Cortez's standing highlights a growing trend among young socialist-leaning voters. Meanwhile, Buttigieg and Marco Rubio are also gaining traction, with Buttigieg at 9% and Rubio at 6% [2].

The betting markets are revealing more than just frontrunners; they expose the shifting expectations, biases, and uncertainties of political speculators. While these odds may change significantly over the next three years, they provide a snapshot of current political sentiment and investor interest.

The Democratic Party's odds are slightly different, with Gavin Newsom leading at 18% and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez close behind at 14%. Pete Buttigieg and Wes Moore are also notable contenders, with odds of 10% and 7%, respectively [4].

Despite the current odds, the political landscape is fluid, and unexpected candidates or events could shift the dynamics significantly. As the 2028 election approaches, investors and financial professionals should closely monitor these prediction markets for updates and insights into the evolving political climate.

References:
[1] https://www.facebook.com/pmwhiphop/posts/new-betting-market-data-reveals-vice-president-jd-vance-leads-the-2028-us-presid/1125793919584049/
[2] https://api.news.bitcoin.com/wp-json/bcn/v1/post?slug=bettors-bet-big-on-vance-and-newsom-2028-us-election-race-heats-up-before-it-even-starts
[3] https://nypost.com/2025/07/19/us-news/vance-shoe-in-to-win-2028-presidential-election-according-to-new-odds/
[4] https://www.benzinga.com/news/politics/25/07/46510082/2028-election-odds-out-from-polymarket-vance-tops-list-at-27-trump-has-5-heres-what-voters-say-in-new-poll
[5] https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-ranks-sixth-early-2028-betting-odds-2101867