Latam Insights: Polymarket Traders Profit on Venezuelan Situation, Bitfarms Exits Latam

U.S. forces captured Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro in a surprise operation on January 3, 2026. The move, framed by U.S. President Donald Trump as part of a broader strategy to reshape Latin America, has generated widespread reactions. Trump stated the U.S. will "run" Venezuela temporarily and potentially lift sanctions to restore oil production.

The U.S. intervention aligns with a revived Monroe Doctrine strategy dubbed the "Donroe" doctrine by Trump. It aims to counter growing Chinese influence in Latin America and reassert U.S. dominance in the region.

Venezuela’s oil production, though currently at less than 1% of global output, could become a strategic asset for U.S. refiners and energy companies if production resumes under new leadership according to Reuters.

Bitcoin miner Bitfarms is shifting focus to North America after exiting Latin America. The company announced the sale of its 70 MW Paso Pe site in Paraguay for $30 million to the Sympatheia Power Fund. This move follows the sale of a site in Yguazú, Paraguay, last year. Bitfarms aims to reinvest the capital into high-performance computing and AI energy infrastructure according to CoinDesk.

Why Did This Happen?

The U.S. military operation was justified by Trump as a necessary step to stabilize Venezuela and counteract the "social and economic collapse" under Maduro’s leadership. The U.S. government has long criticized Venezuela’s economic policies and ties to China. Trump’s administration sees an opportunity to redirect Venezuela’s oil exports to U.S. refineries, which are optimized for processing heavy crude.

Latin American leaders reacted along ideological lines. Right-leaning governments in Argentina and Ecuador supported the move, while left-leaning governments in Colombia and Brazil condemned it. The operation has sparked debates over sovereignty.

How Did Markets React?

Chevron (CVX) is the immediate beneficiary of the U.S. intervention. The company has a long-standing presence in Venezuela and stands to gain from potential production resumption. Analysts suggest Chevron could benefit from new licenses to rebuild Venezuela’s energy infrastructure and boost output according to Seeking Alpha.

Meanwhile, U.S. refiners, particularly those on the Gulf Coast, could see renewed access to Venezuelan crude. This would allow them to optimize production and reduce feedstock costs. However, the global oil market remains oversupplied, which could limit the near-term price impact of the intervention according to Business Standard.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Analysts are closely monitoring the potential for geopolitical fallout. China’s response has been critical, with Beijing calling the operation a violation of international law. Some analysts speculate the move could deter Latin American countries from deepening ties with China due to fears of U.S. reprisals according to South China Morning Post.

The long-term success of the U.S. strategy depends on Venezuela’s political transition and the willingness of U.S. energy firms to invest. Chevron is considered the most likely to capitalize on the opportunity due to its existing infrastructure and expertise in the region according to Seeking Alpha.

Bitfarms’ exit from Latin America reflects a broader trend among crypto companies reassessing regional risks. The firm’s pivot to HPC and AI infrastructure aligns with growing demand for energy-efficient computing. This move could position Bitfarms for stronger returns in 2026 according to CoinDesk.

Argentina, despite high crypto adoption, saw Coinbase exit the market. The regulatory environment, including new laws requiring crypto companies to comply with FATF standards, contributed to the decision. Argentina’s crypto market remains vibrant, but companies are navigating a complex landscape of compliance and competition according to StockTwits.