Las Vegas Sands Q2 Preview: All Eyes on Macau Recovery, Singapore Strength, and Margin Pressures

Three Key Takeaways:

• Macau remains a wild card: visitation is recovering but spend per visitor and base mass trends are lagging.

• Singapore continues to outperform, justifying LVS's $8B expansion despite debt concerns.

• Investors will be watching EBITDA growth in Macau, margins, and commentary on competitive incentives.

Las Vegas Sands (LVS) is scheduled to report second-quarter earnings after the market closes on July 23. As one of the largest casino operators in the world with a dominant footprint in Asia, LVS offers investors a unique read into Chinese consumer sentiment through its operations in Macau. In contrast to many U.S.-centric operators, LVS’s full exposure to Macau and Singapore makes this report an important barometer for trends in premium tourism and discretionary spending across Asia.

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All eyes will be on Macau. While visitation trends have improved, particularly from higher GDP regions in China, spend per visitor remains muted. CFRA’s Zachary Warring underscored that “they need to back up the Macau growth that we’ve seen just in the visitation data.” He cautioned that while travel trends look solid, LVS needs to show follow-through in the form of improved EBITDA and revenue. “If they don’t do well in Macau, investors will probably get sour pretty quickly,” he added. Warring isn’t expecting outsized growth given the rebound already seen in 2023, but emphasized that even low double-digit gains in Macau could be enough to sustain bullish sentiment if they materialize.

On the Singapore front, Marina Bay Sands continues to shine. Warring acknowledged that the property has been “really good for them over the past few years” and said LVS is “consistently growing in Singapore.” The company is planning an $8 billion expansion to enhance its position in the ultra-luxury hospitality space, which CFRA views as the right move strategically. However, Warring also flagged debt concerns, noting that if fully funded by debt, the expansion “would nearly double” LVS’s current obligations. That said, he believes if the project is paced properly, LVS’s robust cash flow should help alleviate pressure.

CFRA also flagged the cyclical and volatile nature of casino stocks. “They do suffer from volatility. They are very cyclical names,” Warring explained. He stressed that these stocks are typically the first to fall in a slowdown, making them better suited for periods of economic stability rather than expansion or contraction. Still, he acknowledged that both Macau and Singapore are positioned for stabilization and possibly modest growth, depending on how consumer behavior plays out in the second half.

In the Q1 earnings call, management guided for continued strength in Singapore and highlighted the completion of the Londoner Grand renovation in Macau. CEO Rob Goldstein reported record adjusted property EBITDA of $605 million at Marina Bay Sands and said all 2,405 rooms at Londoner Grand are now available—a key factor for Golden Week performance. President Patrick Dumont added that Macau margins were pressured by low rolling hold rates but remained optimistic on long-term ramp-up potential.

For Q2, analysts expect EPS of $0.54 and revenue of $2.89 billion. Key items to watch include Macau EBITDA margin recovery, rolling chip win percentage, occupancy trends at Londoner Macao, and the pace of visitation from lower-income Chinese provinces. CFRA will also be closely monitoring commentary around the Singapore expansion timeline and capital deployment strategy, especially in light of recent share repurchases totaling $450 million.

Zachary Warring summed it up best: “Right now, it’s probably a hold for me. I'd sit on your hands and wait and see with the new large investment they have and see some of these numbers coming out of Macau.” Investors looking for clarity on LVS’s near-term growth outlook will need more than just solid headline numbers—they’ll want conviction in Macau’s rebound and assurance that Singapore’s momentum can offset any softness in the broader Chinese consumer environment.