LAN: Problem of strong supply, weak demand is still prominent

LAN: Problem of strong supply, weak demand is still prominent

China’s economy continues to grapple with a persistent imbalance between strong supply and weak demand, a challenge highlighted by officials and economists in recent analyses. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) noted that “the current economy faces the problem of strong supply but weak demand,” underscoring structural pressures despite robust production capacity according to recent analyses. This dynamic has led to a lower-than-expected growth trajectory, with China setting a 2026 economic growth target of 4.5% to 5%, reflecting cautious optimism amid lingering headwinds.

Lu Feng, an economist at Peking University, emphasized that insufficient domestic demand remains the primary constraint on macroeconomic stability. He cited weak consumer and investment growth, partially offset by strong manufacturing and infrastructure spending, as key factors suppressing overall economic momentum according to Lu Feng's analysis. The issue of “overcapacity” in certain sectors, such as manufacturing, further exacerbates the imbalance, as excess supply outpaces domestic consumption and export demand as data reveals.

To address these challenges, policymakers are advocating for targeted structural reforms and active macroeconomic policies. Lu Feng recommended strengthening fiscal and monetary support, including expanded fiscal deficits and interest rate adjustments, to stimulate demand while ensuring regulatory transparency to stabilize market confidence as he has proposed. Additionally, reforms aimed at equalizing treatment for private and state-owned enterprises and accelerating deregulation could enhance private-sector-driven innovation and investment according to his recommendations.

While China’s supply-side resilience offers long-term growth potential, resolving the demand-side shortfall will require sustained policy coordination and structural adjustments to align with evolving global and domestic economic conditions.