LAC's 9.8% Surge: Government Stake and Strategic Deals Ignite Lithium Hype

Summary
• U.S. Department of Energy secures 5% equity stake in Lithium Americas' Thacker Pass project
• General Motors amends offtake agreement to enable third-party lithium sales
• LAC surges 9.8% to $9.26, hitting 52-week high of $9.6999 after volatile intraday swing from $7.67 to $9.6999

Lithium Americas (LAC) has ignited a frenzy in the critical minerals sector, surging 9.8% to $9.26 on October 14, 2025. The stock’s meteoric rise follows a landmark 5% equity stake by the U.S. Department of Energy in the Thacker Pass project and a strategic offtake agreement amendment with General Motors. With the stock trading near its 52-week high, investors are betting on a transformative shift in domestic lithium production and geopolitical supply chain resilience.

Government Equity Stake and Strategic Ofctake Flexibility Drive Rally
The U.S. Department of Energy’s 5% equity stake in Lithium Americas’ Thacker Pass project has redefined the company’s strategic value, positioning it as a cornerstone of U.S. efforts to reduce reliance on foreign lithium supplies. Simultaneously, General Motors’ amendment to its offtake agreement now permits third-party sales, unlocking new revenue streams and reducing project risk. These developments, coupled with heightened geopolitical tensions over rare earths and a global push for EV battery independence, have catalyzed a surge in investor confidence. The stock’s intraday volatility—from a low of $7.67 to a high of $9.6999—reflects the market’s recalibration of LAC’s valuation amid these catalysts.

Lithium Sector Gains Momentum as EV Demand and Geopolitical Tensions Intensify
The broader lithium sector has mirrored LAC’s upward trajectory, with Albemarle (ALB) rising 0.29% and Sprott Lithium Miners ETF surging 14% on news of a Chinese mine suspension. However, LAC’s rally is uniquely tied to direct government intervention and strategic partnerships, distinguishing it from peers reliant on commodity price cycles. While sector-wide optimism persists, LAC’s equity stake from the DOE and its role in U.S. supply chain security position it as a bellwether for policy-driven growth in critical minerals.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on LAC’s Volatility and Sector Momentum
• 200-day average: $3.2086 (far below current price)
• RSI: 71.47 (overbought territory)
• MACD: 1.30 (bullish divergence from signal line at 1.18)
• Bollinger Bands: $1.83–$10.36 (current price near upper band)

LAC’s technicals suggest a continuation of its bullish momentum, with key resistance at $9.70 (52-week high) and support at $7.50. The stock’s overbought RSI and strong MACD indicate short-term strength, though traders should monitor for a pullback to test the $7.50 level. For leveraged exposure, consider the Sprott Lithium Miners ETF (if available) or use options to hedge against volatility.

Top Options Picks:
• LAC20251121C10 (Call, $10 strike, Nov 21, 2025):
- IV: 166.90% (extreme volatility)
- Leverage Ratio: 5.29%
- Delta: 0.559 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.029 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0777 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: $4.9M (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% Upside: $0.46 (max(0, 9.72 - 10) = 0.46)
- Why: High gamma and moderate delta make this ideal for a continuation of LAC’s rally.
• LAC20260116C10 (Call, $10 strike, Jan 16, 2026):
- IV: 137.66% (elevated but manageable)
- Leverage Ratio: 3.96%
- Delta: 0.604 (strong directional bias)
- Theta: -0.0146 (slower decay)
- Gamma: 0.0589 (moderate sensitivity)
- Turnover: $1.38M (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% Upside: $0.46 (max(0, 9.72 - 10) = 0.46)
- Why: Longer-dated option with balanced risk/reward for a sustained move above $10.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider LAC20251121C10 for a short-term breakout play, while LAC20260116C10 offers a safer, longer-term bet if LAC sustains above $9.70.

Backtest Lithium Stock Performance
There was an internal error when the event-backtest engine tried to evaluate the “10 % intraday surge” dates – the statistics routine couldn’t find any valid observations and stopped with a “division-by-zero”. In other words, either a) the 10 %‐surge condition was never met in the 2022-to-present sample, or b) the dates were created but filtered out later because of data gaps (holiday, suspended trading, bad tick, etc.). To move forward you can:1. Loosen the trigger – e.g. test 8 % or 5 % intraday surges.2. Switch from an intraday-high test to a close-to-close test (yesterday’s close → today’s close ≥ +10 %).3. Tell me a precise holding rule (e.g. “buy at next day’s open and sell after five trading days”), then I can run a strategy back-test instead of an event back-test.Please let me know which option you prefer (or supply a different rule), and I’ll rerun the analysis accordingly.

LAC’s Rally Hinges on DOE Loan Clarity and Sector Sentiment—Act Now
LAC’s 9.8% surge underscores its pivotal role in U.S. critical minerals strategy, but sustainability depends on clarity around the DOE loan amendments and execution risks at Thacker Pass. Traders should monitor the $9.70 level for a breakout confirmation and watch for any regulatory delays. Meanwhile, Albemarle’s 0.29% rise highlights sector-wide optimism. For investors, the key takeaway is to secure exposure via options like LAC20251121C10 or ETFs while the stock remains in overbought territory. Watch for $9.70 clearance or a breakdown below $7.50 to dictate next steps.