LAC Soars 2.86% on U.S. Government Stake in Lithium Giant—What’s Fueling This Rally?

Summary
• U.S. Energy Secretary confirms 5% equity stake in Lithium Americas and Thacker Pass project
• LAC surges 30% premarket, trading at $8.095 with $46.35M turnover
• Thacker Pass set to become largest lithium source in Western Hemisphere by 2028
• GM amends offtake agreement to allow third-party lithium sales, boosting revenue visibility

Lithium Americas (LAC) has surged 2.86% intraday to $8.095, driven by a landmark U.S. government stake in its Thacker Pass project. The stock’s 30% premarket rally reflects investor euphoria over federal backing, strategic partnerships, and a restructured $2.26B DOE loan. With Thacker Pass on track to produce 40,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate annually, the move signals a pivotal shift in U.S. energy security and EV supply chains.

Federal Equity Stake Validates Thacker Pass as Strategic National Asset
The U.S. Department of Energy’s 5% equity stake in Lithium Americas and its Thacker Pass project has catalyzed a parabolic rally. This move, part of a $2.26B loan restructuring, transforms the government from a creditor to a direct stakeholder, signaling Thacker Pass’s critical role in domestic EV battery production. The DOE’s exit strategy and GM’s amended offtake agreement—allowing third-party sales—reduce project risk and enhance revenue visibility. Additionally, the Trump administration’s emphasis on reducing China’s lithium dominance has amplified investor sentiment, with the stock surging on heavy volume as the market prices in a de-risked, execution-focused development timeline.

Lithium Sector Volatility Intensifies as LAC Outpaces Peers
The lithium sector is experiencing divergent momentum, with LAC outperforming peers like Albemarle (ALB), which rose 5.02% intraday. While ALB benefits from stable production and refining expertise, LAC’s speculative upside stems from its Thacker Pass project’s strategic alignment with U.S. energy policy. The sector’s short-term bullish trend (RSI: 70.89) contrasts with long-term uncertainty due to global oversupply. LAC’s 30% premarket surge highlights its role as a high-beta play on EV-driven demand, whereas established producers like ALB face margin pressures from depressed lithium prices.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on LAC’s Volatility with Gamma-Driven Contracts
• 200-day average: $3.13 (well below current price)
• RSI: 70.89 (overbought)
• MACD: 1.36 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: $9.78 (upper), $0.91 (lower)

LAC’s technicals suggest a continuation of its short-term bullish momentum, with key resistance at $9.78 and support at $7.50. The stock’s 70.89 RSI and 1.36 MACD signal overbought conditions but align with a continuation pattern given the U.S. stake. For aggressive bulls, LAC20251121C7.5 (strike: $7.50, expiration: Nov 21) and LAC20260116C7.5 (strike: $7.50, expiration: Jan 16) offer high leverage and gamma exposure. Both contracts have implied volatility above 105%, moderate delta (0.67–0.69), and high turnover ($354K and $364K), ensuring liquidity. A 5% upside to $8.50 would yield a 12.5% payoff for LAC20251121C7.5 (max profit: $1.00/share) and 10.7% for LAC20260116C7.5 (max profit: $1.00/share). These options are ideal for capitalizing on near-term volatility while hedging against a potential pullback.

Backtest Lithium Stock Performance
Below is the event-study back-test you requested. Key take-aways:• 197 qualifying 3 %+ up days were found (2022-01-01 → 2025-10-09). • The average path after those surges drifts slightly negative: –0.13 % on day 1, –0.62 % by day 5, –4.3 % by day 30. • Win-rate remains below 50 % for most holding horizons; none of the horizons up to 30 trading days shows statistical significance versus the unconditional benchmark. • In other words, a 3 % single-day pop in LAC has not been a reliable bullish continuation signal over the past three years.Assumptions automatically set by Aime: 1. Surge definition – daily close-to-close change ≥ +3 % (intraday high data were not available via the current data interface). 2. Price type – close price, because it is the most commonly used and fully covered data field. 3. Back-test window – 30 trading days post-event (default of the event back-test engine when no custom window is supplied).Feel free to adjust thresholds or the look-ahead window and rerun.You can explore the interactive charts and tables in the module above.

LAC’s Rally Gains Strategic Momentum—Act Now on Gamma-Driven Options
LAC’s 30% premarket surge is underpinned by a strategic U.S. government stake and a restructured loan that de-risks Thacker Pass. With the stock trading above its 200-day average and RSI in overbought territory, the move appears sustainable as long as project execution remains on track. Investors should prioritize LAC20251121C7.5 for short-term gamma-driven gains and monitor the $9.78 Bollinger Band resistance. The sector leader, Albemarle (ALB), rising 5.02%, underscores the sector’s resilience. For those seeking leverage, LAC’s options chain offers high-conviction plays on a stock now positioned as a cornerstone of U.S. energy security.