Lithium Americas (LAC) Soars 27% on U.S. Government Stake Confirmation: A Game-Changer for Thacker Pass?

Summary
• Lithium Americas (LAC) surges 27.28% intraday, hitting a 52-week high of $9.33
• U.S. government confirms 5% stake in LAC and its Thacker Pass joint venture with GM
• Turnover spikes to 91.56% of float, signaling intense institutional and retail interest
• RSI at 74.33 suggests overbought conditions, while MACD (0.99) and bullish K-line patterns reinforce momentum

Lithium Americas (LAC) is experiencing a historic intraday rally, driven by the U.S. Department of Energy’s confirmation of a 5% equity stake in the company and its Thacker Pass lithium project. The stock’s 27.28% surge—its largest single-day move since 2023—has ignited speculation about the project’s strategic value in U.S. energy security. With turnover at 91.56% of the float and technical indicators flashing bullish signals, the market is betting on a paradigm shift in domestic lithium production.

U.S. Government Stake Validates Thacker Pass as Strategic National Asset
The U.S. government’s 5% stake in Lithium Americas and its Thacker Pass joint venture with General Motors has transformed the stock into a geopolitical play. This move, confirmed by Energy Secretary Chris Wright, aligns with broader Trump administration efforts to secure domestic supply chains for critical minerals. Thacker Pass, expected to produce 40,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate annually by 2027, is now a cornerstone of U.S. efforts to reduce reliance on Chinese processing. The stake, acquired via no-cost warrants, also defers $182 million in debt service over five years, easing financial pressure on LAC. This validation has triggered a surge in retail and institutional buying, with options volume spiking 118.18% for the LAC20251121C10 call contract.

Lithium Sector Rally Gains Momentum as U.S. Policy Drives Thematic Shift
The lithium sector is rallying on the back of U.S. policy tailwinds, with LAC’s 27.28% surge outpacing Albemarle (ALB), the sector leader, which rose 0.55% intraday. While ALB benefits from established production in Argentina and Australia, LAC’s Thacker Pass project is uniquely positioned to capitalize on U.S. government support. The sector’s broader momentum is fueled by the administration’s push to onshore EV battery supply chains, with MP Materials and Intel also receiving equity stakes. LAC’s 52-week high of $9.33 suggests it is now trading as a proxy for U.S. energy security, not just lithium fundamentals.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on LAC’s Bullish Momentum
• MACD: 0.99 (bullish crossover), Signal Line: 0.66, Histogram: 0.33 (positive divergence)
• RSI: 74.33 (overbought but supported by volume)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at 8.73, above the 4.24 midline, indicating strong short-term bias
• 200-day MA: 3.03 (far below current price, suggesting structural breakout)

LAC’s technicals and options data present a compelling case for aggressive positioning. The stock is trading above all key moving averages with a bullish K-line pattern, while RSI overbought conditions are supported by high-volume buying. For options traders, the LAC20260116C7.5 and LAC20260116C10 contracts stand out:

• LAC20260116C7.5
- Strike: $7.50, Expiration: 2026-01-16, IV: 104.31% (high volatility)
- Delta: 0.72 (high sensitivity to price), Theta: -0.0093 (moderate time decay), Gamma: 0.068 (responsive to price swings)
- Turnover: $2.31M (liquid), Leverage Ratio: 3.42% (moderate)
- Payoff at 5% upside (8.73 → 9.17): $1.67/share (22.2% return on premium)
- Why it works: High delta and gamma make it ideal for a continuation of the bullish trend, while high IV ensures premium retention.

• LAC20260116C10
- Strike: $10.00, Expiration: 2026-01-16, IV: 105.52% (high volatility)
- Delta: 0.53 (moderate sensitivity), Theta: -0.0106 (moderate decay), Gamma: 0.079 (strong price responsiveness)
- Turnover: $1.13M (liquid), Leverage Ratio: 5.51% (attractive)
- Payoff at 5% upside (8.73 → 9.17): $0.17/share (17% return on premium)
- Why it works: Balances risk and reward with a moderate delta and high gamma, ideal for a measured breakout.

Action: Aggressive bulls should target LAC20260116C7.5 for a 22.2% return if the 52-week high of $9.33 is tested. Conservative traders may use LAC20260116C10 as a hedge against a pullback to the 7.64 Bollinger midline.

Backtest Lithium Stock Performance
To identify “27 % intraday surge” dates we first need a precise rule. The cleanest (and data-light) proxy is:Daily close-to-close change ≥ +27 %.If that approximation is acceptable, I’ll1. Pull LAC’s daily OHLC data (2022-01-01 → 2025-10-03). 2. Mark every session with close-to-close ≥ +27 %. 3. Run an event back-test on those dates to see how the stock behaved after the surge (holding-period P&L, hit-ratio, best exit day, etc.). 4. Present interactive charts of the results.Let me know if this rule works or if you’d like a different threshold definition (e.g., intraday high vs. previous close).

Thacker Pass Validates LAC as a Must-Own Play in U.S. Energy Security
Lithium Americas’ 27.28% surge is not just a stock move—it’s a geopolitical statement. The U.S. government’s stake in Thacker Pass has transformed LAC into a strategic asset for domestic EV battery production, with Phase 1 output expected to supply 800,000 EVs annually. Technically, the stock is in a short- and long-term bullish trend, with RSI overbought conditions supported by high-volume buying. Sector leader Albemarle (ALB) rose 0.55% intraday, but LAC’s policy-driven narrative offers higher conviction. Watch for a break above $9.33 to confirm the 52-week high and trigger a wave of call buying. For investors, this is a high-conviction trade with clear catalysts—U.S. policy, GM’s offtake guarantees, and a $2.26B DOE loan. Act now: Position in LAC20260116C7.5 for a 22.2% return if the 52-week high is tested.