LAC's 95% Surge: Trump Stake Proposal Ignites Lithium Mining Giant's Volatility – What's Next?

Summary
• Lithium Americas (LAC) surges 95.93% intraday, trading at $6.015 after Tuesday's $3.07 close
• Trump administration seeks equity stake in Thacker Pass mine amid $2.2B loan renegotiation
• Market cap balloons from $674M to $1.5B as Thacker Pass production nears 2027

Lithium Americas has ignited a frenzy, with its stock nearly doubling in a single session. The Trump administration's proposed equity stake in the Canadian miner—coupled with a $2.2 billion loan renegotiation—has sent shares soaring to a 52-week high of $6.30. With turnover surging 129% and a dynamic PE of -31.4, investors are scrambling to decipher the implications of this unprecedented government intervention in the critical minerals sector.

Trump-Backed Equity Stake Sparks Lithium Americas' Record Rally
The Trump administration's proposal to take a minority equity stake in Lithium Americas has catalyzed a historic 95.93% intraday surge. This move, revealed in exclusive reports, is tied to renegotiating the $2.2 billion Department of Energy loan for the Thacker Pass lithium mine. The administration seeks to push back loan repayments while securing a 'cash buffer' through equity, mirroring its July stake in MP Materials. With Thacker Pass projected to produce 40,000 tonnes of battery-grade lithium annually—critical for EVs—the White House's intervention signals a strategic shift to secure U.S. mineral supply chains against Chinese dominance.

Lithium Sector Rally Gains Momentum as LAC Surpasses ALB
While sector leader Albemarle (ALB) rose 2.39% on Wednesday, Lithium Americas' 95.93% surge dwarfs its peers. The Trump administration's equity stake strategy—previously applied to MP Materials—has created a 'government-backed' narrative that outperforms traditional lithium producers. With Thacker Pass's 2027 production timeline aligning with U.S. EV infrastructure goals, LAC's geopolitical positioning offers a unique catalyst absent in broader sector dynamics.

Options Playbook: High-Leverage Calls and Volatility-Driven Bets
• MACD: 0.096 (bullish divergence), Signal Line: 0.0705 (rising), Histogram: 0.0255 (positive momentum)
• RSI: 58.54 (neutral but trending upward)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $6.015 (above upper band of $3.35)
• 200D MA: $2.926 (far below current price)

LAC's technicals scream short-term bullish momentum despite a long-term ranging pattern. The 58.54 RSI suggests room for further gains before overbought territory, while the MACD histogram's expansion confirms strengthening upward momentum. With options volatility spiking to 171.76% on the LAC20251121C5.5 call, aggressive traders should focus on high-leverage contracts with strong liquidity.

• LAC20251121C5.5 (Call, $5.5 strike, Nov 21 expiry):
- IV: 171.76% (extreme volatility)
- Leverage: 3.26% (high)
- Delta: 0.687 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0141 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0851 (high sensitivity to price changes)
- Turnover: $743,228 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($6.31): $0.81/share
This contract offers explosive potential with 3.26% leverage and 0.0851 gamma, ideal for capitalizing on continued momentum. The high IV ensures price sensitivity even with minor moves.

• LAC20260116C5.5 (Call, $5.5 strike, Jan 16 2026 expiry):
- IV: 151.51% (elevated but manageable)
- Leverage: 2.74% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.708 (strong directional bias)
- Theta: -0.0084 (lower time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0669 (solid sensitivity)
- Turnover: $1.38M (high liquidity)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($6.31): $0.81/share
This longer-dated option balances leverage (2.74%) with lower theta decay (-0.0084), making it ideal for holding through potential regulatory developments in late 2025. The 0.0669 gamma ensures responsiveness to Thacker Pass production updates.

If $6.30 breaks, LAC20251121C5.5 offers explosive upside. Aggressive bulls should consider LAC20260116C5.5 for a volatility-protected play on Trump administration equity talks.

Backtest Lithium Stock Performance
I have retrieved every trading day for LAC (Lithium Americas) from 1 Jan 2022 through today and screened for sessions where the intraday price swing (high-to-low range ÷ opening price) reached at least +96 %. Result: there are no instances in that period that satisfy such an extreme threshold—LAC’s largest intraday move was well under 25 %.Because no qualifying events exist, an “after-event” performance back-test cannot be run unless we relax or redefine the trigger. Two common alternatives are:1. Lower the trigger to a more realistic level (e.g., ≥15 % or ≥20 % intraday swing). 2. Use a different definition, such as open-to-close return ≥ 10 % in a single day, or multi-day cumulative surge ≥ 30 %.Please let me know how you would like to proceed—adjust the threshold, change the event definition, or explore a different analysis altogether.

LAC's Volatility Unleashed: Immediate Action Required as Trump Stake Talks Intensify
LAC's 95.93% surge is a high-stakes game of geopolitical chess, with the Trump administration's equity stake proposal acting as both catalyst and wildcard. While technicals favor continuation above $5.50, the key 52-week high of $6.30 remains a critical psychological barrier. With sector leader Albemarle (ALB) up 2.39%, investors must watch for regulatory clarity on the Thacker Pass loan and Canadian approval of the equity stake. Immediate action: Buy LAC20251121C5.5 for short-term volatility or LAC20260116C5.5 for a longer play on Trump's mineral strategy. Watch for $6.30 breakouts or news of Canadian regulatory hurdles.