La Niña's Surprising Impact on Argentine Farmers: A Cautionary Tale

As the 2022/23 harvest season comes to a close in Argentina, farmers are left to grapple with the devastating impact of La Niña, a weather phenomenon that has brought unprecedented drought conditions to the country. The third consecutive year of La Niña has left Argentina's agricultural heartland, covering the provinces of Santa Fe, Buenos Aires, La Pampa, and Córdoba, with a water deficit equivalent to an entire year's rainfall. This has resulted in estimated losses to the national economy of US$20 billion, representing more than 3% of GDP.

The Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR) reports that Argentina's agricultural output has been severely affected, with a 45% drop in production of the country's three main crops – soybean, corn, and wheat – compared to the previous year. The unharvested area, the land that was planted but whose crop was lost pre-harvest, amounted to 36.4 million hectares, three times more than the previous high seen in 2015/16. The drop in production is set to have a significant impact on Argentina's foreign trade receipts, with a 40% decline in export income from soy expected compared to 2021/22, representing a loss of around US$8 billion.



The impacts of La Niña on Argentina's agricultural sector have been exacerbated by a "tremendously extractive" production model, according to agronomist Gustavo Recupero. The agronomist describes the situation as "very serious," with 30% of soybean fields seeing yields between 0 and 4 quintals per hectare, when usually those figures range between 28 and 32 quintals per hectare. Rubén Walter, director of agricultural estimates at the Santa Fe Stock Exchange, echoes Recupero's concerns, noting that the structure of the soil – its permeability, the internal movement of the roots – is not in the same condition as it was a decade ago.

Climate change, while not the direct cause of La Niña, has exacerbated the drought's impacts. A World Weather Attribution report found that climate change has intensified the current drought, which has been felt across South America. The prolonged drought, driven by three consecutive years of La Niña, has led to a water deficit equivalent to an entire year's rainfall in Argentina's agricultural heartland. This deficit, combined with soil deterioration due to deep-seated production cycles and practices, has resulted in a 45% drop in production of Argentina's three main crops.

As Argentine farmers and policymakers look to the future, they must take steps to mitigate the effects of La Niña and improve the resilience of the agricultural sector to climate variability. This includes improving soil health, investing in early warning systems, promoting drought-resistant crop varieties, implementing water management techniques, and diversifying crops. By taking these measures, Argentina can better manage climate variability and improve the resilience of the agricultural sector.

In conclusion, the impacts of La Niña on Argentina's agricultural sector have been severe and far-reaching, with estimated losses of US$20 billion and a 45% drop in production of the country's three main crops. As climate change continues to influence weather patterns, the frequency and severity of La Niña events may increase, further exacerbating the challenges faced by Argentina's agricultural sector in the coming decades. By taking proactive measures to mitigate the effects of La Niña and improve the resilience of the agricultural sector, Argentina can better prepare for the challenges ahead.