L3Harris Technologies: Unleashing Growth in Defense Innovation at Bernstein's Strategic Decisions Conference

The defense technology sector is primed for transformation, and L3Harris Technologies (LHX) is positioned to lead it. With its upcoming presentation at the Bernstein 41st Annual Strategic Decisions Conference on May 29, 2025, the company will outline a roadmap that combines cost discipline, international expansion, and breakthrough programs to drive outsized returns. Here's why investors should take note.

The Catalysts Driving L3Harris's Dominance

L3Harris isn't just another defense contractor—it's a strategic innovator capitalizing on global security demands. Its upcoming presentation will underscore three key growth engines:

1. Cost Savings & Margin Expansion via LHX NEXT

The company's LHX NEXT program, aimed at slashing costs through operational efficiency and digital transformation, is already delivering results. With $1.2 billion in savings committed by 2026—$1 billion already achieved—this initiative is accelerating margin expansion. By 2026, L3Harris targets margins exceeding 16%, a level that could push its valuation higher than peers.

2. Golden Dome: A Multi-Billion Opportunity in Missile Defense

L3Harris is a cornerstone of the U.S. government's Golden Dome initiative, which seeks to create a layered missile defense network. The company's investments in space-based sensors and interceptors—critical to programs like the Hypersonic and Ballistic Tracking Space Sensor (HBTSS)—are set to deliver contracts worth billions. With facilities in Fort Wayne, Indiana, and Palm Bay, Florida, fully operational, L3Harris is primed to capture a dominant share of this high-margin market.

3. Commercializing Defense Contracts

The company is pioneering a “commercial-first” approach to defense procurement, advocating for 30–50% of DoD acquisitions to adopt streamlined, fixed-price contracts. This reduces bureaucratic delays and minimizes risks tied to inflation or supply chain hiccups—a stark contrast to traditional development programs. With 20% of defense revenue already generated via commercial models, L3Harris is proving that efficiency and profitability can coexist.

Valuation: Why L3Harris is Undervalued

Despite its robust pipeline, L3Harris's stock trades at a discount to its peers. Consider these metrics:

• Revenue Growth: L3Harris is targeting $23 billion in 2026, a 12% increase from 2023. Its organic growth, fueled by Aerojet Rocketdyne's integration and NATO contracts, could outpace projections.
• Free Cash Flow: A projected $2.8 billion by 2026 (up from $1.8B in 2023) suggests strong shareholder returns via buybacks or dividends.
• Competitive Position: L3Harris's dominance in space systems, missile defense, and communication technologies positions it as a must-have partner for the U.S. and NATO allies.

Navigating Risks, Seizing Opportunities

While risks like potential NASA budget cuts (affecting 1% of revenue) are notable, they pale against L3Harris's diversified portfolio. The company's focus on fixed-price contracts without speculative options further mitigates execution risks. Meanwhile, its international wins—like the $1 billion Dutch contract (“Foxtrot”) and Germany's $500 million deal—highlight a strategy to leverage rising NATO spending.

Conclusion: A Buy Now, Pay Later Opportunity

L3Harris is at a pivotal moment. Its cost discipline, leadership in critical defense programs, and commercialization push create a rare combination of growth and stability. With shares trading at 12x forward earnings—well below historical averages—the stock offers a compelling entry point. The Bernstein presentation on May 29 will likely cement L3Harris as the defense innovator to watch. Backtest the performance of L3Harris (LHX) when buying 5 days before and holding for 30 days following Bernstein's Annual Strategic Decisions Conference, from 2020 to 2024.

Historically, this strategy has delivered exceptional results. From 2020 to 2024, buying LHX five days before the conference and holding for 30 days generated an average return of 1,163%, far outpacing the benchmark's 39%. While the approach carries high volatility (66.65%) and a maximum drawdown of 40%, its risk-adjusted returns (Sharpe ratio of 3.03) indicate a compelling reward-to-risk profile for investors willing to accept the volatility.

Investors who act now could secure outsized gains as the company delivers on its 2026 targets—and beyond. Recommendation: Buy L3Harris (LHX) ahead of the Bernstein presentation. Set a price target of $250 by year-end.

This analysis is based on public disclosures and does not constitute personalized financial advice. Always conduct your own research.