Kyber Network Crystal v2/Tether Market Overview

• KNCUSDT fell from 0.3448 to 0.3263, posting a 24-hour low near 0.3261.
• Strong bearish momentum with RSI near oversold territory.
• Volatility expanded as price dropped below 38.2% Fibonacci level.
• Large-volume candle formations suggest aggressive selling.
• Price remains below both 50- and 20-period moving averages.

Kyber Network Crystal v2/Tether (KNCUSDT) opened at 0.3448 on 2025-10-06 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 0.3483 before closing at 0.3263 at 12:00 ET the following day. The 24-hour low was 0.3261. Total volume reached 2.55 million KNC, while notional turnover amounted to $875,618.

The price action reflected a sustained bearish bias, as the price broke through key Fibonacci retracement levels and remained below the 20- and 50-period moving averages. A sharp sell-off occurred between 05:00 and 05:15 ET, when the pair plummeted from 0.346 to 0.3438, signaling aggressive short-term bearish pressure. A bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 00:45–01:00 ET, confirming a reversal after a brief rally. Further support levels emerged at 0.3420–0.3425 and 0.3380–0.3385, with resistance forming around 0.3440 and 0.3460.

Moving Averages and MACD/RSI Indicators

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended downward, with the 50-period line acting as a bearish guide. The 50-period MA currently sits at 0.3422, while the 20-period MA stands at 0.3396, confirming a bearish crossover. The RSI is near oversold territory at 28, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce. However, the MACD remains negative, with the histogram shrinking slightly, which may indicate a temporary slowing in bearish momentum.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded significantly during the sharp decline, with the lower Bollinger Band dropping to 0.3250. The closing price of 0.3263 is near the lower band, suggesting an oversold condition and a potential reversal. However, the continued bearish pressure and low volume near the bottom suggest that a rebound may be short-lived.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume surged during the key bearish moves, particularly between 05:00–05:15 ET and 14:15–14:30 ET, where large-volume sell-off candles occurred. Notional turnover reached a peak of $43,894 at 05:15 ET and a second peak of $106,862 at 14:15 ET. These volumes confirmed the bearish price action and indicated strong participation from short sellers. However, recent volume has decreased, suggesting a potential exhaustion of selling pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements and Key Levels

The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.3420–0.3425 was breached on the 15-minute chart, and the price is currently testing the 23.6% level at 0.3395–0.3400. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement level from the recent high at 0.3483 and low at 0.3261 is at 0.3372, a key area to watch. A break below 0.3250 could trigger a test of the next support level near 0.3200, though this would require renewed bearish momentum.

A potential backtesting strategy involves entering short positions when price breaks below the 50-period moving average and confirms on the following candle, while also ensuring the RSI is above 50 to avoid oversold conditions. A stop-loss is placed above the most recent swing high, and a take-profit target is set at the next key Fibonacci level. The 15-minute chart’s high volume and clear bearish pattern suggest that this strategy could capture strong downward moves, especially in markets with high volatility like KNCUSDT. Historical testing would confirm whether such signals consistently lead to profitable outcomes.