Kyber Network Crystal v2/Tether Market Overview

• Kyber Network Crystal v2/Tether (KNCUSDT) declined sharply from 0.37 to 0.3368 amid heavy selling in the early hours of 24 September.
• The price formed a bearish engulfing pattern near the peak and remained below key moving averages.
• Volatility expanded sharply with a massive 1089855.0 volume candle marking a key low.
• RSI and MACD signaled extreme bearish momentum, with no signs of oversold relief.
• A potential support zone is forming near 0.3360–0.3355, while 0.3400 could test near-term bullish resilience.

Kyber Network Crystal v2/Tether (KNCUSDT) opened at 0.37 on 2025-09-21 12:00 ET and closed at 0.3374 on 2025-09-22 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.37 and a low of 0.3207. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 2,489,635.7, and notional turnover amounted to approximately 796,962.2 (KNC × USDT). The price action reflects a strong bearish bias across the session, especially during the early morning hours in UTC.

Structure & Formations

The price structure shows a distinct bearish breakdown starting from 0.37. A bearish engulfing candle formed during the transition from 2025-0922 00:30 to 00:45 ET, signaling strong seller control. The price continued lower, forming a 15-minute downtrend that culminated in a sharp low at 0.3207. The current price appears to be consolidating near 0.3370, with potential support levels at 0.3365 and 0.3355. No significant bullish reversal patterns have emerged, but a doji near 0.3370 may hint at a potential pause in the decline.

Moving Averages and MACD/RSI

On the 15-minute chart, KNCUSDT closed below its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the bearish trend. The 20-period MA sits at approximately 0.3415 and the 50-period MA at 0.3430, suggesting further downward pressure before a potential retest of these levels. MACD shows a large bearish divergence, with the line and histogram both trending lower. RSI is in extreme oversold territory (near 28), indicating a possible short-term bounce could occur, though a meaningful reversal would likely require stronger volume and price confirmation.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility spiked during the early hours of the session, with the 20-period Bollinger Bands widening sharply following the massive volume candle. The price gapped below the lower band at one point, signaling a high degree of bearish conviction. As the price has pulled back toward the mid-bands, there is some potential for a consolidation phase. However, the overall trend remains bearish, with the upper band currently at ~0.3430, acting as a short-term resistance level.

Volume and Turnover

Volume distribution was highly skewed toward the lower half of the session, with the most significant spike occurring during the 00:30–00:45 ET candle, which saw a turnover of 796,962.2 USDT. This massive outflow supports the bearish breakout and suggests strong selling pressure. There was a notable volume divergence after 06:00 ET as the price recovered slightly without a corresponding increase in volume, indicating weak conviction in the short-term bounce.

Fibonacci Retracements

Using the most recent bearish swing from 0.37 to 0.3207, key Fibonacci levels align with the current price near 0.3370, which is approximately 61.8% of the retracement level. If the price continues to retrace higher, 78.6% is near 0.3430. Conversely, a breakdown below 0.3355 (38.2%) may trigger a test of the next Fibonacci level at 0.3305. These levels serve as potential zones for trend continuation or reversal depending on volume and price confirmation.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent bearish setup, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a short position triggered on a close below the 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, with a stop loss above the last bullish candle’s high. A target could be set at the next Fibonacci level (0.3305), with partial profit-taking at the 61.8% retracement level (0.3370). This strategy would prioritize high-probability entries during strong bearish momentum, using moving averages and Fibonacci retracements to identify key levels for entry and exit. It could be backtested using a 20-period MA crossover on 15-minute candles and Fibonacci levels as price targets.